The Philadelphia Phillies are having a phenomenal season and are putting the finishing touches on a division title. Great pitching has driven them, especially from starter Ranger Saurez. He has not pitched since July 22 due to lower back tightness but is set to return this weekend. per MLB.com

“Phillies manager Rob Thomson said there is a 95% chance that Suárez will rejoin the rotation on Aug. 24 in Kansas City. Suárez threw 57 pitches in a four-inning simulated game on Aug. 17 — with crowd noise piped in at Citizens Bank Park. Thomson said the left-hander's “stuff looked good” and that he got better as the session went on.”

Suarez got off to a blistering start to the season, helping the Phillies reach first place by the All-Star Break. In his 14 starts before the break, he went 10-1 with a 1.77 ERA. The Phillies went 13-1 in those games. By the end of that stretch, he became the Cy Young favorite in the National League. He had four consecutive poor starts before being put on the shelf and has been out for a month.

The Phillies have the third-best odds to win the World Series, according to Fangraphs, at 12.1%. They are behind the Dodgers and Yankees on that list. If Suarez can continue his form, the Phillies have two aces with him and Zach Wheeler to lead them in the playoffs.

Phillies chances in the playoffs

Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Ranger Suarez (55) pitches against the Atlanta Braves during the first inning at Truist Park.
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With Ranger Suarez returning from injury, the Phillies have a great chance of making it back to the National League Championship Series. They have made it there in consecutive seasons, beating the Padres in 2022 and losing to the Diamondbacks last season.

Those campaigns came without Suarez being one of the best pitchers in the National League. Aaron Nola and Wheeler were studs on those teams and continue to be great pitchers now. With Suarez coming back, they can take that three-headed monster into any series and be the favorites.

The team has struggled along with Suarez since the All-Star break. They are 12-18 in that stretch and have lost two games to the Braves and five games to the Mets in the division race. The Phillies got off to such a great start that they have not lost the division lead. They still hold a six-game lead and an 87.1% chance to win the NL East.

If Suarez comes back in the same form he was in before the injury, they should power out of this slump. The Phillies need to show good form down the stretch, as the Dodgers and Yankees are going to be playing meaningful games when they might not. If they coast through September, they could get tripped up before the World Series.

The NL Cy Young opened back up when Suarez got hurt. Through that opening came veteran Chris Sale, who is having a career year with the Atlanta Braves at 35 years old. After missing a month, Saurez is out of the Cy Young race but should be considered a dark horse candidate for next season.