Against all odds and better logic, the Pittsburgh Pirates are good. And not just good relative to previous seasons—they're legitimately good for anybody. At 20-12, the Pirates have the second best record in the National League, just one game behind the Atlanta Braves. Even better, it feels sustainable. The Pirates have the seventh best OPS+ (OPS adjusted relative to league average and ballpark) and the fifth best ERA+ (ERA adjusted to league average and ballpark). Similarly, their +1.2 average run differential is sixth best in the majors, signaling that their hot start isn't a fluke. After eight years of non-competitive badness, it's impossible to not get excited about Bryan Reynolds, David Bednar and the Pirates this season. As such, here are three overreactions from the Pirates' blazing start to the season.
Bryan Reynolds is a superstar
Over the offseason, Bryan Reynolds signed the biggest deal in Pirates history, inking an eight-year, $106 million contract. He already looks like one of the biggest bargains in baseball. While Reynolds already earned a spot on the shortlist of the league's steadiest and best outfielders, he's taken his game to a new level this year. He's a menace at the plate, ranking in the top 10 in batting average (.327), OPS (.950), doubles (11) and runs batted in (23) amongst all National League hitters. The Pirates have been successful in large part due to the depth of their lineup as seven of their top 10 hitters have an above average OPS+, but Reynolds has been their undoubted centerpiece this season. Before inking his new extension in the offseason, Reynolds demanded a trade, but the Pirates refused to deal him, opting instead to position him as the new face of the franchise. The mutual faith between Reynolds and the Pirates has certainly paid off to start this year as the Pirates have outpaced teams like the Dodgers and Yankees who made overtures for the left right fielder.
The scariest part? Reynolds might be underperforming. With a hard hit rate of 52.6 percent and the 15th highest exit velocity in MLB at 93.0 miles per hour, Reynolds is absolutely scorching the ball. Accordingly, his expected stats far outpace his actual slash line; his expected batting average, slugging percentage and on base percentage are all above his current numbers.
David Bednar is too
While Reynolds is in the running as one of MLB's best corner outfielders, David Bednar is clearly the best closer in the league. Dating back to 2021, the 29 year old righty hurler has been untouchable, posting a 2.23 ERA and striking out 11.7 batters per nine innings over that time frame. This year, he's somehow been even better. In 13 innings, Bednar has allowed exactly one earned run and walked only a single batter. He's only allowed multiple opponents to reach base in one appearance so far this season.
The secret to his success lies in his fastball, which has utterly befuddled hitters this season. Although Bednar's fastball clocks in at a solid if unremarkable 95.9 miles per hour, its high spin rate imparts the illusion that it's rising, preventing batters from squaring it up; his has nearly two fewer inches of vertical break than the average heater and induces weak contact as hitters can only lamely swing underneath the offering. Playing off the success of the fastball, Bednar has two devastating off-speed options, a firm, darting splitter and a massive looping curveball with a whopping 55 inches of vertical drop. With this pitch mix, Bednar keeps hitters off balance, tunneling the three pitches to introduce crippling doubt. The pitches look the same coming out of his hand, leaving hitters guessing whether a 96 mile per hour fastball, firm 90 mile per hour splitter or looping 76 mile per hour curve ball is on the way.
The Pirates should be buyers
The Pirates are winning, so it's time for them to commit to keep winning. While the Pirates seem for real, it's unrealistic to expect Jack Suwinski and Connor Joe to each maintain an OPS over .900 or for Vince Velasquez to keep his ERA more than a full run lower than any other year in his career. With Oneil Cruz out for the year, the Pirates have a shortage of ceiling-raising star power on their roster. Luckily, they have options to add some.
In the minors, the Pirates have four top 50ish prospects in Temarr Johnson, Henry Davis, Endy Rodriguez and Quinn Priester while Nick Gonzalez is among the the top 10 second basement in the minors. While Johnson is still a ways away from the majors, Davis, Rodriguez and Priester all could give the team a jolt if the Pirates hit a slump. To wit, the Pirates have the organizational depth to swing a deal for a veteran starting pitcher or middle infielder at the trade deadline and go all-in on their first playoff berth in nearly a decade.
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