The Pittsburgh Pirates head to the West Coast as they face the San Diego Padres. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Pirates-Padres prediction and pick.
Pirates-Padres Projected Starters
Mitch Keller vs. Martin Perez
Mitch Keller (10-6) with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP
Last Start: In his last start, Keller went four innings, giving up seven hits, two walks, and two home runs. He would surrender seven runs in a loss to the Dodgers.
2024 Road Splits: In 12 starts on the road this year, Keller is 5-4 with a 4.59 ERA and a .265 opponent batting average.
Martin Perez (2-5) with a 4.78 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP
Last Start: Perez went seven innings in his last start, with three hits, two walks, and two home runs. He would allow just two runs, in a no-decision against the Marlins.
2024 Home Splits: In ten starts at home this year, Perez has a 1-2 record with a 3.93 ERA and a .282 opponent batting average.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Pirates-Padres Odds
Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-188)
Moneyline: +118
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+155)
Moneyline: -138
Over: 8 (-115)
Under: 8 (-105)
How to Watch Pirates vs. Padres
Time: 4:10 PM ET/ 1:10 PM PT
TV: SMP/SDPA
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Pirates Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Pirates are 21st in the majors in runs scored, while sitting 24th in batting average, 26th in on-base percentage, and 27th in slugging. Bryan Reynolds leads the way. He is hitting .284 this year with a .352 on-base percentage. He has 19 home runs and 69 RBIS. Further, he has scored 54 times this year. Oneil Cruz has also been solid this year with a .261 batting average and a .317 on-base percentage. He has 18 home runs 59 RBIS and 54 runs scored. Rounding out the best bats on the year is Andrew McCutchen. He is hitting .235 with a .338 on-base percentage. He has 16 home runs and 39 RBIS while scoring 59 times this year.
Andrew McCutchen has been solid in the last week. He is hitting .375 in the last week with a .500 on-base percentage. He has three home runs, eight RBIs, and three runs scored in the last week. Joey Bart is also having a solid week. He hit .280 in the last week with a .308 on-base percentage. He has two home runs and five RBIS while scoring three times. Oneil Cruz is also coming in hitting well. He is hitting .364 in the last week with a .462 on-base percentage. He has a home run, three RBIS, and three runs scored.
The Pirates have 62 career at-bats against Martin Perez. They have hit .355 against him with four RBIs. Andrew McCutchen is six for 21 with three doubles and three RBIs. Michael A. Taylor is five for 12 with a double and an RBI as well. Finally, Yasmani Grandal is three for four with a walk against Perez.
Why The Padres Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Padres are ninth in runs scored, while sitting first in batting average, seventh in on-base percentage, and ninth in slugging. Jurickson Proctor has been solid this year. He is hitting .297 on the year with a .395 on-base percentage. He has 19 home runs 72 RBIs and 69 runs scored. Manny Machado has also been having a great year. He is hitting .269 on the year with a .318 on-base percentage. He has 18 home runs, 68 RBIS and 57 runs scored. Jake Cronenworth rounds out the top bats of the year. He is hitting .248 this year with a .317 on-base percentage. He has 14 home runs, 67 RBIS and 54 runs scored.
Jackson Merill has been great in the last week. He is hitting .370 with a .419 on-base percentage. Merrill has four home runs, eight RBIS, two stolen bases, and nine runs scored in nthe last week. While Manny Machado is not hitting great, he is still driving in runs. He is hitting just .214 in the last week with a home run and seven RBIs. He has also scored three times. Luis Arraez rounds out the most productive bats of the last week. He is hitting .276 with a .300 on-base percentage. Aaraez has four RBIS and five runs scored in the last six games.
Current members of the Padres have 59 career at-bats against Mitch Keller. They have hit .220 against him. David Peralta has been solid against Keller. He is three for six with a double and three RBIs. Manny Machado has also been solid. He is three for nine with a home run and three RBIs. Rounding out the best bats against Keller is Jake Cronenerworth, who is two for nine with a double and two RBIs.
Final Pirates-Padres Prediction & Pick
Martin Perez is facing his former team, after making two starts with his new team, the Padres. In his two starts with the Padres, he has allowed three runs in 13 innings. Still, Mitch Keller has been the better pitcher this year. The Pirates are swinging the bats well and should be able to score against Perez. Take the Pirates in this one.
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Final Pirates-Padres Prediction & Pick: Pirates ML (+118)
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