One of the most intriguing elements of the 2024 college football season is the introduction of the new 12-team format for the College Football Playoff (CFP). This expanded field creates more opportunities for teams to be part of the big dance. Still, as with the former formats—whether it was the two-team BCS or the four-team playoff—some teams will inevitably find themselves on the outside looking in.
Already, as we approach Week 4, the conversations around strategies for making the playoff have intensified. We know that five of the highest-ranked conference champions will receive automatic bids, regardless of records. However, the Power 4 teams (SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC) will have a clear advantage in filling out the rest of the field. Still, this guarantees at least one spot for a Group of Five team.
Then there are programs like Notre Dame, which is in a unique position as an independent school. For the Fighting Irish, every game carries immense weight, especially after suffering an upset loss to Northern Illinois, ironically, a Group of Five team, in Week 2. For Notre Dame, and other independents or at-large hopefuls, each matchup becomes critical in their quest to secure one of the 12 playoff spots.
With Week 3 now behind us, let’s predict how the College Football Playoff will shape up as we head toward Selection Day on Dec. 8.
1. Texas Longhorns (SEC Champion)
The current No. 1 team in the AP Top 25 Poll is the Texas Longhorns. Texas has already marched into The Big House and dominated Michigan, and SEC conference play hasn't even started yet—it kicks off in Week 5. The schedule works in the Longhorns' favor compared to many other SEC teams. Their toughest challenges ahead will be back-to-back games against rival No. 15 Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl and No. 2 Georgia at home. The rest of their opponents all currently have at least one loss on their record. The Longhorns boasting two top tier quarterbacks in Quinn Ewers and Arch Manning also give the Longhorns the top spot in the CFP.
2. Ohio State (Big Ten Champion)
Even with the Big Ten expanding to 18 schools this year, the Buckeyes still appear to be a step ahead of the competition. Granted, this year's Ohio State football team has yet to face any real challenges, but their roster is loaded with talent. We'll get a better sense of how good the Buckeyes truly are when they travel to Oregon on Oct. 16—a matchup that could serve as an early preview of the Big Ten title game.
3. Miami Hurricanes (ACC Champion)
While there are still plenty of skeptics regarding this year’s Miami (FL) football team, the Hurricanes appear to be the class of the ACC. Granted, that might not be saying much, given how down the conference looks this year. Nonetheless, the Hurricanes look the best they have in decades after three games. Even better, their schedule is shaping up favorably, with only one ranked team currently on the horizon—No. 19 Louisville. As long as Cam Ward is quarterback, the Canes are the frontrunner in the ACC.
4. Kansas State (Big 12 Champion)
The Big 12 is by far the most difficult conference to predict. Through the first three weeks of the season, the conference features six teams sitting at 3-0, including Kansas State. However, by season's end, any of these teams could have up to three losses, if not more. The Wildcats narrowly avoided a loss to Tulane in Week 2, and while their schedule looks more manageable moving forward, they still have to host Oklahoma State and face in-state rival Kansas. Determining the conference's best team will likely be a week-to-week affair.
5. Georgia Bulldogs
The Bulldogs have a legitimate shot at finishing in the top four and winning the SEC title game. However, this year’s Georgia football team faces a brutal schedule. They narrowly escaped an upset against Kentucky on the road last weekend, and things won't get any easier. As the season progresses, Georgia is set to face four teams currently ranked in the top 10, making their path to the playoff particularly challenging.
6. Oregon Ducks
Oregon played some sloppy football in the first two weeks but looked much more like the dominant Ducks we're accustomed to in their win over Oregon State last week. Assuming Oregon and Ohio State meet twice—once in the regular season and again in the Big Ten title game—the Ducks could certainly take one of those matchups. Either way, Oregon appears poised to make this year’s CFP.
7. Tennessee Volunteers
Through their first three games, Tennessee has been one of the most dominant teams in the country, outscoring opponents 191-13 and looking every bit like a playoff contender. However, the competition in the SEC is fierce. The Vols will get their first real test in conference play this weekend when they travel to Oklahoma for a Top 25 showdown.
8. Ole Miss Rebels
Ole Miss has one of the easiest paths to the College Football Playoff this year. By SEC standards, their schedule is relatively light. Lane Kiffin has assembled one of his best rosters yet—arguably one of the best in school history. If this team doesn't make it to the CFP, it will be considered nothing short of a massive failure.
9. USC Trojans
With Caleb Williams now in the NFL with the Chicago Bears and lingering questions about the defense, many had written off the USC Trojans entering the 2024 season. However, they quickly silenced doubters with a statement win over LSU in the season opener in Las Vegas. Now ranked No. 11 in the country, the Trojans haven't faced much of a challenge since. That will change when they head to Ann Arbor this weekend.
10. Alabama Crimson Tide
Maybe this is too low for the Crimson Tide, but realistically, the jury is still out on this Alabama football team. They are undeniably talented, as evidenced by their lopsided victory over Wisconsin last Saturday. However, there is still a transition phase to consider with the shift from Nick Saban to Kalen DeBoer. Four of their last six games are against top-20 SEC opponents, plus the Iron Bowl against Auburn, which makes their road ahead challenging.
11. Nebraska Cornhuskers
One of the real surprise teams that could make the inaugural 12-team CFP could be Nebraska. This No. 11 ranking will be highly coveted, with teams just behind them on the outside looking in. The Cornhuskers have looked much improved through their first three games, and while their remaining schedule isn't a cakewalk, it is manageable. We’ll find out if they are truly playoff-worthy when they face No. 24 Illinois this Friday.
12. Memphis Tigers (highest ranked Group of Five champion)
A team from the Group of Five will earn a spot in the CFP, so why not Memphis? While there are other contenders vying for this final coveted ranking—such as South Florida, Tulane, Liberty, Toledo, or Northern Illinois—Memphis emerges as the prediction to make the CFP after Week 3. Although they defeated a struggling Florida State team, securing a win over a Power 4 program is still an impressive feat.
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