The Houston Rockets are entering the 2024-25 NBA season with plenty of reasons for renewed optimism. After an offseason of mostly standing pat, the front office is betting on the development of their young core to make significant strides in the Western Conference. Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, and Steven Adams will serve as the veteran locker room leaders to help Ime Udoka guide this upstart squad.
The Rockets did well to maintain flexibility during the free agency frenzy. Rookie Reed Sheppard is already getting praised by rival executives. Houston seems to be trending up and even fell into a manageable NBA Cup group stage draw. A run through the schedule resulted in an uptick in wins last season, but unfortunately this roster is on the road to the same early-summer vacation results.
Successful start but failure to launch
Houston has a handful of games before Halloween that are downright scary. The Rockets start the season at home against the Charlotte Hornets (1-0), get a rest day, then welcome in Ja Morant's Memphis Grizzlies (1-1). Less than 24 hours later the South Texas tango tips off with two road games in three days against the San Antonio Spurs (2-2). An October 31 trip to see Luka Doncic (2-3) is more of a trick than a treat.
November presents a mixed bag of challenges. The Rockets will face the Golden State Warriors, New York Knicks, and San Antonio Spurs before taking on the Oklahoma City Thunder away. The Detroit Pistons might be a problem 36 hours later due to a 2:00 pm tipoff. Less than 24 hours later is a home date with the Washington Wizards. Then it's a rest day before the Los Angeles Clippers come to town for a two-game set (5-8).
The Rockets need to capitalize on games against rebuilding teams like the Chicago Bulls, but who knows if Lonzo Ball will be back (6-8). NBA TV will catch Houston against the Milwaukee Bucks for the second of a back-to-back set (6-9). The next flight lands back in Houston for a three-game homestand versus the Indiana Pacers and two games in two nights against the Portland Trail Blazers (8-10).
Thanksgiving leftovers will have to travel through the Minnesota Timberwolves (Nov. 26) and Philadelphia 76ers (Nov. 27) to close out the month (8-12). These first 20 games will be a test of faith as much as willpower to stick with the status quo. Plans are subject to change should the team fall too far behind the top eight out West.
Rockets hoping for rewarding holidays
December might be a deal breaker when it comes to the front office buying at the trade deadline. First up is a home matchup against Oklahoma City before a three-game West Coast road trip to see the Sacramento Kings, Warriors, and Clippers (9-13). The next two games are currently unknown thanks to the NBA Cup elimination rounds.
Zion Williamson's New Orleans Pelicans will pop on over from the other Bayou City to start Christmas Week (10-13). The Rockets will get a trip through Customs before Santa starts dropping off presents, which just adds to the holiday headaches. A back-t0-back in Charlotte after playing the Toronto Raptors is another coal in the stocking (11-14). Then it's a trip to the Big Easy the day after presents are unwrapped (11-15).
The Rockets will need the home-cooking that comes with a five-game homestand to start the new year. Minnesota will meet Ime Udoka's squad back in Houston less than a day after departing New Orleans. Jimmy Butler's Miami Heat, Doncic's Dallas Mavericks, the Boston Celtics, and the Los Angeles Lakers are the next four up. A road trip to Washington after that week should get Houston to within four games of .500 (14-18).
Five of the next six games are on the road and may serve as the nails in the coffin to rule out any postseason run. The Grizzlies are the only team to come see the Rockets at home. Houston also visits Memphis during this stretch with stops vs. the Atlanta Hawks, Denver Nuggets, Sacramento, and Portland (17-23). Finally, the Rockets get a rest day before hosting the presumably lottery-bound Pistons (18-23).
January's run-in is ruthless though. First up is the Cleveland Cavaliers at home. Then both the Rockets and Cavaliers jet up to Ohio for a rematch. Houston finishes the month with stops in Boston and a TNT broadcast in Memphis (19-26).
Fighting for Love to finish the season
There is no rest for the weary and no love lost from the schedule makers. Houston has eight games in 13 days including a four-game road trip. A battle against the Brooklyn Nets at home tips off the two weeks before Valentine's Day (20-26). Road games in New York, Brooklyn, Minnesota, and Dallas (21-29) will likely be the last smack on the kisser for any hopes of contending. There is a sliver of hope remaining though with seven of the next eight at home.
The Raptors, Phoenix Suns, Warriors, and Timberwolves hit Houston before the Rockets have a road jam session with the Utah Jazz (22-33). Milwaukee and San Antonio on ESPN are served up in a back-to-back to close out February (23-34).
March usually means load management by the leading squads and long looks at prospects by lottery teams. Four games in six days with three on the road will test Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green's stamina. The Kings, Thunder, Pacers, and Pelicans are all expected to play fast in securing top-six seeds (25-36).
A six-game homestand in mid-March might be the absolute last chance to save the season. The Pelicans and Orlando Magic are beatable on any day (27-36). The Suns are a top-heavy team relying on health and the Mavericks will be resting their All-Stars (29-36). Chicago should be cannon fodder after selling off any useful salary (30-36). The 76ers will still be looking to build chemistry between Paul George and Joel Embiid though (30-37).
Flying through Florida for a split with the Magic and Heat (31-38) is one of the easier trips to bring family along, especially with a day off in between. The Nuggets and Hawks at home is another split opportunity to keep pace (32-39) in the Play-In race. Four of the next nine games are slated to be shown on NBA TV. The league office expects some excitement down the stretch.
Road games against the Jazz, Suns, and Lakers will be a great way to make up ground on the rest of the West's middle class (35-39). Utah and OKC at home have to be victories for Houston at this stage (37-39). The Warriors, Clippers, and Lakers follow on the road (37-42). Nikola Jokic's Nuggets come to Texas for the final game of the regular season (37-43).
Factor in the two NBA Cup to-be-determined dates as split and the Rockets wind up with a 38-44 record. It is an improvement over last season but will likely only be enough for the 10th seed in the Western Conference. How the front office proceeds with this information will signal just how fast ownership wants to open a championship window around this young core.
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