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The Purdue Boilermakers (1-9, 0-7 BIG 10) travel north to take on the Michigan State Spartans (4-6, 2-5 BIG 10). Below we will continue our college football odds series with a Purdue-Michigan State prediction and pick. We will also let you know how to watch the game.
Purdue-Michigan State Last Game – Matchup History
These teams last met in 2021. Purdue won the game 40-29.
Overall Series: Michigan State leads the all-time series 36-29-3.
Here are the Purdue-Michigan State College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Purdue-Michigan State Odds
Purdue: +13.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +390
Michigan State: -13.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -550
Over: 47.5 (-114)
Under: 47.5 (-106)
How to Watch Purdue vs. Michigan State
Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00 PM PT
TV: FOX
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why Purdue Could Cover The Spread/Win
Purdue has not played well, but they do have a chance to cover the spread in this game. Michigan State allows the fourth-most points in the Big 10 this season. The Spartans have lost four of their last five games, and their defense has been the cause of most of those losses. Michigan state has allowed 32.0 points per game in those five games. If Purdue can put up points on a weak defense, they will cover this spread.
Michigan State has allowed the fourth-most passing touchdowns in the Big 10. Opposing quarterbacks have been able to throw 18 touchdowns against the Spartans defense, and they get sacked less than two times per game. With the lack of pressure on the quarterback, and not great coverage, Hudson Card has a great chance to have a good game for Purdue. If Card can hit his open receivers and stay upright in the pocket, Purdue will cover.
Aiden Chiles has not been great for Michigan State. He throws for just over 200 yards per game, which is not bad. However, Chiles has thrown just 10 touchdowns on the season and 11 interceptions. That is more interceptions than games played. Purdue is usually not great defending the pass, but they should be in this game. If they can force a few turnovers, the Boilermakers will be able to win this game.
Why Michigan State Could Cover The Spread/Win
Purdue is the worst team in the Big 10. They have not won a conference game, and that is because of their defense. On the season, Purdue is the only team in the Big 10 to allow more than 390 yards per game. With that, the Boilermakers have allowed the second-most passing yards, and the most rushing yards per game. Michigan State should not have any problems on the offensive side of the ball Friday night.
Against FBS opponents this season, Purdue has allowed 43.2 points per game. In Big 10 play, the Boilermakers allow 40.7 points per game. Their defense has been well below average, and is the reason for a majority of their losses. It would be surprising to see Michigan State score less than three touchdowns in this game. I am expecting four or five touchdowns to be scored by the Spartans. If they can do that, Michigan State will cover.
Michigan State should also be able to play some decent defense. Purdue has scored the fewest points per game in the conference. They do not pass the ball well, and their rushing attack is not great, either. Michigan State allows less than 200 yards per game through the air this season, and 129.7 rush yards. If Michigan State can stay strong on the defensive end, they will win this game by two or more touchdowns.
Final Purdue-Michigan State Prediction & Pick
Purdue is not a good team, and I do not expect that to change in this game. I will take Michigan State to cover the spread.
Final Purdue-Michigan State Prediction & Pick: Michigan State -13.5 (-110)
