Las Vegas Raiders' head coach Josh McDaniels has found himself in this situation before, in a seat that seems to grow increasingly hotter with each passing week. A similar scenario unfolded with the Denver Broncos back in 2010 when he was fired after just 12 games into his second season. Not even half a season into his second year with the Raiders, it seems like déjà vu.
McDaniels posted an 11-17 record in not even a full two seasons with the Broncos back in 2010. With the Raiders now in 2023, he's accumulated a 9-15 record in 24 games, which has left many in Sin City wondering when the axe will fall on his second head coaching attempt.
Josh McDaniels second head coaching chance may be his last chance
It's not uncommon for head coaches who faced setbacks in their first attempts to get a second chance, a frequent occurrence in the NFL. Bill Belichick and Pete Carroll are prime examples of coaches who turned their careers around after challenging first stints. However, McDaniels appears to be falling in line with the rule rather than the exception.
It took 12 years for McDaniels to land his second head coaching position. While he had been interviewed multiple times over the years, for various reasons, he was either not selected by other teams or turned them down – such as the case with the Indianapolis Colts back in 2018 when he initially agreed to join them but later changed his mind to remain with the Patriots, Belichick, and Tom Brady. The Patriots won their last Super Bowl in 2018.
In 2022, McDaniels finally accepted the Raiders' job, a year after Brady left the Patriots and won his seventh Super Bowl with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. With Brady now officially retired, both McDaniels and Belichick find themselves leading teams with losing records and being on the hot seat.
The leash is undoubtedly longer for Belichick, who boasts a resume filled with success. However, McDaniels' situation is entirely different. His recent loss to the Bears in Week 7 is a stark reminder of the trajectory of his head coaching career and what it is likely to remain.
Player personnel, QB issues has plagued Josh McDaniels' head coaching career
Throughout McDaniels' brief head coaching career, his biggest challenge, as with many head coaches, has been finding a reliable quarterback. In Denver, he began by trading Jay Cutler to the Bears for Kyle Orton. The Broncos started the 2009 season with a perfect 6-0 record but then went 2-8 for the rest of the season, missing the playoffs.
In the 2010 NFL Draft, McDaniels and the Broncos selected Florida Gators quarterback Tim Tebow in the first round. Tebow helped lead Denver to a playoff win the year after McDaniels was fired. However, due to perceived limitations in Tebow's skill set, his selection faced significant criticism and was one of the reasons for McDaniels' firing. His decisions regarding player personnel have consistently attracted criticism.
Fast forward to today, and McDaniels is grappling with similar issues, albeit under different circumstances. The Raiders released Derek Carr after a dispute within the team, pre-McDaniels, and they signed free agent Jimmy Garoppolo. This move was initially seen as a sound decision by the Raiders and McDaniels, even though Garoppolo was likely intended as a short-term solution.
Garoppolo has missed two out of the Raiders' seven games this season with multiple injuries but has a 3-2 record when playing. The problem, however, is that the Raiders are struggling to score points even with Garoppolo leading the way. They are averaging a mere 16 points per game this season, ranking 30th in the league, per Team Rankings. Furthermore, they are ranked 25th or lower in other offensive categories, including yards per game, yards per play, and third-down conversion percentage.
The Raiders also lead the league in passing interceptions with 12 (per, Fox Sports stats), three more than the second-place Cleveland Browns, who have also faced quarterback issues. In their recent game against the Bears, the Raiders threw three interceptions – one resulting in a pick-six. In the past two weeks, they have managed only 12 points.
To make matters worse, the Raiders gave up 30 points to the Bears, who had their own backup quarterback, a zero-star recruit out of high school and an undrafted player. The backup quarterback threw for just 162 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions.
Would Raiders owner Mark Davis fire Josh McDaniels mid-season?
The Raiders have had their share of bad luck, especially with their head coaching choices. If McDaniels were to be fired by owner Mark Davis midseason or after, the Raiders would be seeking their sixth head coach since 2012. However, this team has been outscored by their opponents this season 161-112. McDaniels is an offensive head coach, and regardless of any bad luck, those performances simply won't suffice for a franchise that has long been seeking a way out of the doldrums.
The loss to the Bears was embarrassing and might have been reason enough for McDaniels to be fired. But now the Raiders face the NFC North-leading Detroit Lions in Motor City on Monday Night Football, who are coming off a lopsided loss to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 7. If McDaniels somehow survives that, expect decisions to be made after the game against the New York Giants the following week, especially if they lose. But really, the only question is if Davis would want to fire McDaniels midseason. He may have no other choice if the team has totally revolted from their head coach by then.
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