Real Madrid looks for their third Champions League win as they host AC Milan. It is time to continue our Champions League odds series with a Real Madrid-AC Milan prediction and pick.
Real Madrid comes into this fixture sitting at 2-0-1 in UCL play. After winning over Stuttgart 3-1, they would struggle against Lille, falling 1-0. Still, they rebounded in a big way last time out. Dortmund took a 2-0 lead in the first half, but Real Madrid came back. Vinicius Junior scored three times in the second half, as Real Madrid scored five total in the second half to win the game 5-2.
Meanwhile, AC Milan is just 1-0-2 in their three UCL fixtures. They had back-to-back losses to open the tournament, falling 3-1 to Liverpool and then 1-0 to Bayer Leverkusen. AC Milan scored the first goal of the game against Club Brugge, and Brugge would receive a red card in the 40th minute. Still, they would tie the game in the second half, but AC Milan would answer with two second-half goals of their own to win 3-1.
Here are the Champions League odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Champions League Odds: Real Madrid-AC Milan Odds
Real Madrid: -230
AC Milan: +600
Draw: +380
Over 3.5 goals: +122
Under 3.5 goals: -148
How to Watch Real Madrid vs. AC Milan
Time: 3:00 PM ET/ 12:00 PM PT
TV: Paramount +
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
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Why Real Madrid Will Win
Real Madrid has scored well this year, averaging 2.07 goals per game across all competitions this year. They have scored in 12 of the 14 matches this year, failing to score against Barcelona and Lille. Still, they have been getting a good volume of shots off. Overall this year, Real Madrid has 16.71 shots per fixture with 39 percent being on target. In UCL play they have 19.33 shots per contest with 41 percent on target.
Kylian Mbappe has led the way for Real Madrid so far. In domestic league play, he has scored six goals in ten fixtures, plus has an assist. He also has a goal in UCL play. Meanwhile, Vinicius Junior with five goals and four assists so far in domestic league play. He is going off a hat trick in his last UCL fixture. Finally, Rodrygo has three goals in domestic league play but has just three shots with none on target in UCL play. He missed the last game with an injury.
Real Madrid has given up four goals in three games so far in UCL play. They have been strong on defense this year overall, allowing just 15 goals in 14 fixtures overall. Andriy Lunin has been making starts in goals as of late and is expected to be in goal in this one. He has allowed five goals on 11 shots across all competitions this year.
Why AC Milan Will Win
AC Milan has normally scored well this year. In 13 fixtures between domestic league play and Champions League play, they are scoring 1.62 goals per game this year. They had scored just one goal in their first two fixtures but scored three last time out with the help of an opponent's red card. AC Milan has been starting well this year. They are scoring one goal per first half this year, scoring in eight of their 13 first halves this season.
Christian Pulisic has led the way for AC Milan this year. He has scored five goals and has three assists so far in domestic league play. His five goals are an expected 3.5 goals this year. Pulisic has scored twice so far in UCL play this year. Meanwhile, Theo Hernandez has been solid this year. The defender has scored two goals and has two assists on the season in domestic league play. He has seven shots in the three UCL games, but none hit the target. Further, he has struggled to create opportunities in UCL play. Finally, Tijjani Reijnders has scored twice on six shots with three on target in UCL play.
AC Milan has been solid, but not great on defense this year. They have allowed 1.23 goals per fixture this year between UCL and domestic league play. That average goes up to 1.67 goals per game in UCL play. Mike Maignan has been solid in UCL play. He has allowed four goals on 21 shots so far in UCL play.
Final Real Madrid-AC Milan Prediction & Pick
Real Madrid has been solid in two of their three games, with just the one lapse against Lille. Meanwhile, Milan has struggled earlier in UCL play, but finally rebounded last time out. The best play in this one is going to be on the total though. Both teams have scored in two of their three UCL games, while also seeing the over 3.5 hit in two of their three games. Expect goals in this one and take the over.
Final Real Madrid-AC Milan Prediction & Pick: Over 3.5 (+122)
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