While the Boston Red Sox might not be one of the top contenders in the American League, they are exceeding expectations and have some intriguing young pieces that could make them serious contenders for the long-term future, and Ceddanne Rafaela is one of those players. Rafaela has an outside shot at the American League Rookie of the Year award if he has a big second half, and he spoke on that goal recently.
“To be honest with you, that was a goal growing up,” Ceddanne Rafaela said, via Christopher Smith of MassLive.com. “It's an honor for me to be in the talk with other good players. So yeah, obviously it's on my mind but it's not something I'm going to stress myself out about. I just want to win ballgames.”
The priority for Rafaela should be winning games, as he said. The Red Sox have struggled out of the All-Star break, and losing the first three series before taking two out of three from the Seattle Mariners this week. Still, a big second half from Rafaela to win the Rookie of the Year award would contribute to winning games.
As things currently stand, Rafaela has the sixth-best odds to win the American League Rookie of the Year award behind Colton Cowser of the Baltimore Orioles, Luis Gil and Austin Wells of the New York Yankees, Wyatt Langford of the Texas Rangers, and Colt Keith of the Detroit Tigers, according to Smith.
When looking at the WAR leaderboards, Rafaela has a long way to go with 0.5 on the season, according to FanGraphs. That is way behind Colton Cowser, who leads American League rookies with 2.9 WAR. A big second half should not be ruled out for Rafaela, given the tools he has and the improvements he has made.
What is the recipe for a big second half for Ceddanne Rafaela, Red Sox?
Currently on the season, Rafaela is batting .255 with a .285 on-base percentage, .698 OPS and 12 home runs, according to FanGraphs. That is good for an 87 wRC+ on the season, meaning he is 13% below the league-average hitter. What sticks out is the on-base percentage, which indicates that he is not working walks very often, and that is verified by his 3% walk rate on the year.
When looking at Rafaela's Baseball Savant page, it is easy to tell why. Rafaela has a 44.1% chase rate this season, which is in the first percentile, so he is among the worst in the league when it comes to laying off pitches outside of the zone. Rafaela's advanced metrics are well below average nearly across the board, with launch angle sweet spot being the only one that is league average.
However, there still has been growth throughout the season offensively. In March and April, Rafaela's wRC+ was at 45, according to FanGraphs. In May, it was not great but much better at 87, followed by marks of 104 and 119 in June and July. Since May 1, Rafaela has a .280 batting average with a .310 on-base percentage, .750 OPS and 10 home runs, good for a 103 wRC+, according to FanGraphs. There are still red flags, especially with the 2.8% walk rate in that span.
Another component of this is that Rafaela has been forced to play shortstop. He is a very good center fielder, and not good at shortstop. He has 5 DRS and 2 OAA in center field, compared to -6 DRS and -9 OAA at shortstop. If Rafaela had played mostly center field this year instead of shortstop out of necessity for the Red Sox due to Trevor Story's injury, his WAR would look a lot better. If he wants to win the American League Rookie of the Year award, he should be asking to play center full-time for the rest of the season.
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