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HOUSTON – Following gut-wrenching back-to-back Houston Rockets losses against two Eastern conference teams on the road, the team returns to the Toyota Center where they will play the next three of four at home. Along with the New Orleans Pelicans road game in the mix, the next three teams the Rockets will face with their 11-1 home record will be the Atlanta Hawks, Dallas Mavericks, and Indiana Pacers. Each of these teams has a franchise guard, which has been a massive weakness for the Rockets' defense.
Nevertheless, the Rockets have remained ahead of schedule, with a 13-11 record in the 9th spot of the Western Conference, outperforming teams that are still rebuilding in the San Antonio Spurs, Charlotte Hornets, and the Detroit Pistons.
Based on their performance, here is what could happen in the next three home matchups.
Atlanta Hawks
There's been an ongoing trend for Houston regarding the inability to guard a team's best scorer, especially if they are a guard. These are games against Stephen Curry, Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, LeBron James, and Damian Lillard.
Hawks guard Trae Young, one of the most crafty scorers and facilitators out there, is no exception. He will be the main challenge for the Rockets to defend effectively in this matchup. After a slow start to the 2023-2024 season, Young has been on a tear lately.
Over the last four games, the 25-year-old has posted 30-plus-point, 10-plus-assist double-doubles while shooting at 2016 Stephen Curry levels of efficiency, with 49% on 52-of-106 shots and 46% from deep on 22-of-47. Although he can get erratic at times, Young can light up the scoring in a heartbeat.
Dejounte Murray, Young's backcourt teammate, can also produce some stats, but he is mainly on the court to provide perimeter defense. Former Rockets fan favorite Clint Capela competes for the boards just as well as any center in the league, which will be a worthy challenge for Alperen Sengun.
Like the Milwaukee Bucks, the Hawks play extremely fast on the offensive end, attempting to outscore the opponent to win ballgames. Houston didn't have much success thwarting this plan, but the Hawks' defense is much worse, especially in the paint.
The lack of defense inside plus little to no support backing up Trae Young has them sliding in at the 10th spot of the Eastern Conference with an 11-15 record. They tend to have most of their success on the perimeter deflecting passes inside. Expect this matchup to be a bloodbath on both sides if the Rockets can't contain Iced Trae. If they slow Young down, this should be a relatively comfortable win.
Prediction: Rockets win 127-120
Dallas Mavericks
The previous Rockets-Mavs matchup occurred between these two during a crucial In-Season Tournament game in Dallas. Friday's matchup will be on their home floor, which has been a safe haven for Ime Udoka's squad. The loss of Kyrie Irving to a leg injury has minorly hurt Dallas, as they've been 3-2 since December 8th. As of Tuesday morning, no timetable has been set for when Irving will return to the starting lineup.
For the Rockets, Mavs star Luka Doncic thrives playing against them. The prior matchup saw him with near triple-double numbers, tallying 41 points on 15-of-29 shooting.
Additionally, Houston had trouble defending Tim Hardaway Jr., which has been an ongoing trend. Against Houston since November 2019, Hardaway averages 19.5 points on 44.2% shooting. Oddly enough, Dante Exum, who's taken the starting guard spot in the absence of Kyrie, has had a bit of a resurgence to his initially dormant NBA career. In seven games as a starter, Exum averages 16.1 points on crazy efficiencies of 64.2% shooting and 57.7% from deep. Even so, if Irving continues to be out on Friday, the Rockets might have a chance. Guarding two All-Stars is a massive chore for the team but if Luka is unable to get his teammates involved, a win might be on the horizon.
Prediction: Rockets lose 101-98
Indiana Pacers
Another team, another franchise guard. This will be the first time this season that the Houston Rockets will get a taste of Tyrese Haliburton.
With averages of 25 points on 50.7% shooting and 11.9 assists, Haliburton is putting up video game numbers that compare to a gamer who plays NBA2k MyCareer on Rookie Mode. There's also Bennedict Mathurin, who, initially would be Haliburton's backcourt mate, but is thriving as a guard off the bench.
Just like the aforementioned Hawks and Bucks, the Pacers' winning strategy is to outscore their opponent to win. Only in this case, the Pacers are the best offensive team in the NBA, and likely in NBA history. The only downside for the team is their defense. To curb their historic offense, the Pacers are dead last in defensive rating and opponent points per game. That's the reason why they are 13-12 to start this season. There hasn't been a single game in which Indiana has held their opponent to less than 110 points. Plus, they recently lost to teams such as the 4-21 Washington Wizards.
In addition to Indiana's shaky defense, they lost to the LA Clippers in their most recent game, allowing a whopping 151 points. If the Rockets can match the Pacers' blistering offense and manipulate their lackluster defense, there's a small chance a win is in their favor.
Prediction: Rockets lose 131-124
