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Light the beam! Those three words have defined the Sacramento Kings' 2022-23 campaign. After years of poor drafting, poor asset management, and an overall franchise ineptitude, the Kings have managed to turn things around. With only 25 games left in the season, the Kings are sitting comfortably as the Western Conference's third seed with a 32-25 record.
Their strong performance has not been a fluke; led by De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, both 2023 All-Star selections, the Kings have found a winning formula predicated on pace, taking care of the ball, and spacing the floor.
Nonetheless, the Kings have a huge end of the season ahead of them following the All-Star break. After all, teams that are chasing their tail, namely the Los Angeles Clippers, Phoenix Suns, and Dallas Mavericks, all made moves to try and improve. As a result, some expect the Kings to suffer a bit of a drop-off as those three teams continue their climb atop the standings.
But the Kings have proven themselves capable of weathering every storm the league has thrown at them this season, and it should not be any different in the final stretch of the season.
Here are three bold predictions for how the Kings would finish the season after a successful All-Star break that saw two players represent the Beam Team in Salt Lake City.
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3. Kings finish the season with the best offensive rating in the NBA
Trading for Domantas Sabonis was a masterstroke; as well as Tyrese Haliburton has performed for the Indiana Pacers, there's no way the Kings would emerge as the lovable Beam Team without the Lithuanian center leading the way for a high-octane Kings offense that ranks second in the league in points scored per 100 possessions.
For as well as De'Aaron Fox has played this year, Sabonis is at the heart of what makes the Kings offense stand out from other teams. Sabonis functions as a dynamic offensive hub, capable of punishing teams on the interior with his stellar finishing and capable of hitting the open man on cuts and handoffs.
In particular, the Kings make use of the dribble handoff particularly well. They lead the league in how often they run handoffs, at 9.4 percent, and they rank third in the league in points per possession on such plays, trailing only the Portland Trail Blazers and Charlotte Hornets, who don't run handoffs nearly as often as the Kings do.
The addition of Kevin Huerter, as much as he struggled during the Three-Point Contest, has been a godsend in that regard. Huerter leads the league in handoff frequency, scoring 1.10 points per possession in those plays.
The Kings also make good use of sublime off-ball movement; they rank fifth in the league in points per possession on cuts. A whirring machine of movement and unselfishness, the Kings have managed to maximize the talent on their roster.
While it'll be difficult to dislodge the Denver Nuggets from the top spot, it makes sense for the Nuggets to take their foot off the gas pedal as they run away with the Western Conference one-seed. Meanwhile, the Kings will have every incentive to maintain and perhaps even improve upon their offensive production, given how congested the playoff race is.
Thus, surpassing the Nuggets' elite offense may only be a matter of time, especially when the Nuggets offense ranks just fifth since the calendar flipped to 2023.
2. De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis both make All-NBA teams
Sabonis and Fox are currently in the middle of career years; their All-Star nods show that the league recognizes how well they've played to lead the Kings from the dregs of the league into bonafide playoff contention. However, given how stacked the league is these days, it might be difficult for Sabonis and Fox to both make an All-NBA team.
Between Fox and Sabonis, the latter seems to be a more likely candidate for an All-NBA selection. While Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid appear to have the other center spots locked down, it's difficult to argue that another center has been better than Sabonis. Therefore, Sabonis is a likely candidate to nab the All-NBA third team center spot.
Fox, on the other hand, will find it more difficult to wiggle his way in. He will jostle with the likes of Luka Doncic, Steph Curry, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ja Morant, Donovan Mitchell, Damian Lillard, Anthony Edwards, Jalen Brunson, James Harden, and Trae Young for six All-NBA guard spots.
Thus, bold predictions don't come much bolder than this.
1. Kings retain 3-seed
The Clippers, Suns, and Mavs are hot on the Kings' heels. The additions of Russell Westbrook, Eric Gordon, Mason Plumlee, and Bones Hyland make the Clippers a deeper, more multi-dimensional team; adding Kevin Durant immediately vaults the Suns into the title-contending picture, health permitting; and the Mavs gave Luka Doncic his best teammate ever in Kyrie Irving.
Alas, these three teams will have a few growing pains to overcome in the process. The Clippers will have to integrate Westbrook, the Suns' health remains a huge question mark, and the Mavs' defense looks toast, as elite as their offense could become once all pieces have acclimated.
The Kings' continuity will then reign supreme as they manage to hold off these three teams and gain a more favorable playoff seeding. The Kings will also want to have homecourt advantage so they could light the beam in what should be their first playoff appearance since 2006.
