In Sunday’s game that pits the San Francisco 49ers up against the Miami Dolphins, injuries will dictate the success of the 49ers, while the Dolphins are looking to put their loss at the hands of the Seattle Seahawks behind them in a tough battle on the road.
For this game, the line rightfully slides to favoring the Niners, spotting the home team nine points without a hook, giving San Francisco a ton of confidence, even with their team still working itself back to being at full health.
Quarterback Jimmy Garappolo has been given the OK to start on Sunday, according to head coach Kyle Shanahan, and he hopes to also welcome back starting running back Raheem Mostert, who went out in the same game against the New York Jets on the questionable MetLife Stadium field.
For this game, take a look at four of the main storylines to follow in this game and see how each has a bold outlook attached to them.
San Francisco 49ers throw less than 20 times – and win by 20
Holding a 50.5 over/under does not contribute to Vegas having a ton of faith in either team putting up over 20 points, something that the 49ers should not have a ton of trouble doing, especially if they go to their running game early and often.
With working Garappolo back into game shape, keeping him healthy is going to be the key to their season, and he excels as a game manager more than as a gunslinger, so giving him some easy throws to help build up timing with the likes of George Kittle, Deebo Samuel (if he overcomes his non-COVID sickness), and others.
With Mostert trending in the right direction to playing, the 49ers would have Mostert, Jerick McKinnon, and Jeff Wilson Jr. as their backs for the game, as Tevin Coleman is still out nursing an injury. With McKinnon injury-prone and Mostert getting back on his feet, there will most likely be a carry distribution between the three backs that makes this backfield hard to have a lone, standout fantasy option.
Mostert projects to be an RB2/RB3/FLEX option this week, holding a higher upside than McKinnon due to him being the presumed starter. McKinnon can be played as a FLEX option this week, as he should have a safe floor earning carries in a backup/fill-in role alongside Mostert.
Looking at all of these options, putting Jimmy G in to hand the ball off 25+ times in the game is exactly the recipe to get him back into game shape, and it will also help keep Kittle, Samuel, and their RB stable healthy, while getting them their reps. The Dolphins are a much more formidable squad than last season, but Ryan Fitzpatrick is simply biding his time as the holdover starter until Tua Tagovoiloa is deemed ready, something that should be coming soon.
Miami looks to be in their regular AFC East cellar role, which should make this game turn into a lopsided defeat early on.
Mostert puts up 100+ total yards on less than 15 touches
Week 1 – 151 total yards, 2 touchdowns (1 on the ground, 1 through the air)
Week 2 – 107 total yards, 1 TD (rushing)
Something that held true for both of the first two weeks of this season for Mostert, before he got hurt? He did substantial damage without getting more than 19 touches. And in the Week 2 affair against the Jets, all Mostert needed (before leaving with an injury) was eight carries and two receptions to rack up an impactful showing.
Mostert’s snap count will be heavily monitored as he makes his recovery from a knee injury, and the Dolphins, who boast a defense that is tied for 11th-best in the NFL (according to Pro Football Focus) in terms of points allowed (96), are not a porous unit, but certainly have their weaknesses.
Even if the Dolphins decide to push their chips to the middle of the table and hunker down to try and shut down the running attack, the San Francisco 49ers have a volatile-enough scheme that they will still hit hard and be successful on the ground, controlling the clock and using their strong offensive line to move the ball down the field.
Shanahan knows what he is doing, and while Mostert is not at 100 percent quite yet, he will be used in an efficient way, hopefully in a way that helps maximize his fantasy value.
Fitzpatrick finally gets on the same page with Gesicki
Tight end Mike Gesicki came into the year as one of the hottest choices for a breakout season amongst fantasy industry experts, something that surprisingly enough did not end up driving up his value during the redraft period. But so far through the season, the 11th-best TE in fantasy (according to ESPN rankings) has struggled to put together a consistent stretch of games.
Recording games of three, eight, one, and one catches each, Gesicki and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick have not been on the same wavelength, outside of the Week 2 matchup against the Buffalo Bills, where he burned that secondary for an 8/130/1 line.
The 49ers secondary has yet to allow a TD reception to a tight end and has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to that position as well, putting up a ton of roadblocks for Gesicki to struggle yet again.
But, the former Penn State Nittany Lion is primed to have his second breakout game this year, and it would be a good situation for it to happen in, especially with how banged up the Niners secondary is.
Odds are that the Dolphins will be behind early and often in the game, so throwing the ball will bode will alter the game plan, something that obviously plays well into getting Gesicki a steady diet of targets. While 10 targets are not out of the question, Gesicki should at least be able to produce a TE10 performance (or better) and hopefully put his one-catch games behind.
DeVante Parker leads all non-QBs in yardage – from both sides
Wide receiver DeVante Parker is the clear-cut WR1 for this team, and his connection with Fitzpatrick has made that quite obvious, as he has produced top 25 WR stats so far this season.
Even with having only hauled in one touchdown to date, Parker commands the opposing top corner on a regular basis, showcasing that the fifth-year player out of Louisville has finally put everything together, especially after his 72/1,202/9 breakout season last year.
With the Niners facing a serious depletion of their defensive backfield, Parker will not be commanding Richard Sherman, K’Waun Wiliams, Emmanuel Moseley, or Dontae Johnson in Sunday’s game, as they are all cornerbacks that have been ruled out. CB Akhello Witherspoon is currently questionable, as he is dealing with a hamstring injury – if Witherspoon would suit up, it would be up to him and Jason Verrett to secondary, alongside safeties Tarvarius Moore and Jaquiski Tartt.
That is an extremely long list of non-top options for the San Francisco 49ers, meaning that Parker could have an absolute field day in a game that looks like the Dolphins will be throwing early and often, giving him a good chance at establishing a really solid floor early on in the game.
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