The San Antonio Spurs have made in the playoffs for 21 straight seasons. But a forecast by ESPN says that this year will be a playoff-less Spurs.

Kevin Pelton of ESPN, in his yearly standing projection, expects the Spurs to place 10th place in the Western Conference with 38.5 wins.

He explained why he came to that conclusion, citing the loss of Danny Green and Kyle Anderson. He singled out Anderson's impact, who is the second-best player in the team if ranked by RPM:

Article Continues Below
More San Antonio Spurs News
Kon Knueppel talks to the media during the 2025 NBA Draft Combine at Marriott Marquis Chicago.
Spurs rumors: ESPN makes eye-opening suggestion for No. 2 pick in mock draftZachary Howell ·
Dylan Harper (29) participates in the 2025 NBA Draft Combine at Wintrust Arena.
Spurs’ perfect outcome for No. 2 pick in 2025 NBA DraftHector Ledesma ·
New Orleans Pelicans guard Trey Murphy III (25) tries to steal the ball from Phoenix Suns forward Kevin Durant, right, during the second half at Smoothie King Center.
Bill Simmons urges Spurs to trade for Kevin Durant alternativeMatty Breisch ·
San AntonHouston Rockets guard Josh Christopher (9) drives to the basket as San Antonio Spurs forward Keita Bates-Diop (31) defends while guards Joshua Primo (11) and guard Devin Vassell (24) look on in the second half at AT&T Center. io Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich talks with San Antonio Spurs guard Joshua Primo (11) in the second half against the Charlotte Hornets at the AT&T Center.
Spurs’ 10 worst NBA Draft day mistakes in historySpencer See ·
Phoenix Suns forward Kevin Durant (35) drives to the basket against San Antonio Spurs guard De'Aron Fox (4) during the second half at Moody Center.
Spurs rumors: Bill Simmons drops bombshell Kevin Durant trade declarationMalik Brown ·
San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama (1) prepares to throw a ball in to the stands in celebration of Fan Appreciation Day after a victory over the Toronto Raptors at Frost Bank Center.
Spurs star Victor Wembanyama shows off new shaved head look at Chinese templeJackson Stone ·

The narrative about the Spurs since the Leonard trade has been that they’re adding DeRozan to a team that won 47 games last season with virtually no contribution from Kawhi. (I even mentioned something similar in my trade grades.) The problem with that analysis is San Antonio lost two other starters in Danny Green and Kyle Anderson, who filled Leonard’s spot in the lineup. Anderson rated as the Spurs’ second-best player by RPM last season and Green (minus-0.2) projects better than DeRozan (minus-0.4) by RPM. Add in aging from San Antonio’s veteran core, and it’s certainly possible the Spurs won’t be as good as they were last season, though I wouldn’t necessarily bet against them making the playoffs.

Though Pelton himself pointed out the weakness of his analytical model, he might have a thing going in here. Apart from an aging roster, their head coach Gregg Popovich, too, is not getting any younger each day. Though he hasn't shown signs of fatigue in any way (he's even coaching Team USA), one cannot discount the wear and tear he's been through over the years.