The knockout round continues at the 2023 FIFA Womens World Cup as Sweeden faces the USA in the round of 16. It is time to continue our Women's World Cup odds series with a Sweden-USA prediction, pick, and how to watch.

Sweden was the third-place team in the 2019 World Cup and has been third place three times while finishing as the runner-up in 2003. To get here Sweden won Group G, winning all three of their games. It has not always been pretty for Sweden so far in the World Cup. They played South Africa to a scoreless first half in the first game, as Sweden did not look good and struggled to get momentum.

South Africa scored easily in the second half to take the lead, but Sweden buckled down, scoring two more, including one in the 90th minute to get the win. Sweden then started to look very good in the second game, scoring three goals in seven minutes at the end of the first half against Italy to take a 5-0 win. Once again it was a struggle against Argentina though. They turned over the ball too much, but Argentina never capitalized as Sweden swept the group stage.

Now they face the USWNT. Sweden has faced the US six times at the World Cup and only has one win and one draw to show for it. They have never played outside the group stage though. The lone win for Sweden came in 2011, in the last game of the group stage. Both teams entered 2-0, but Sweden came out with a 2-1 win.

Meanwhile, the United States has struggled, leading to a lot of criticism for the team. After winnings their first game of the group stage, 3-0 over Vietnam, they fought the Netherlands to a 1-1 draw in the second game. Then, they also scored a draw with Portugal, leading them to be the runner-up in Group E. While they have not suffered a loss, a sense of defeat came with the two draws and runner-up finish in the group. Now, the number one ranked squad in the world takes on the number three ranked squad in a round of 16 match-ups.

Here are the FIFA Women's World Cup Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

FIFA Women's World Cup Odds: Sweden-USA Odds

Sweden: +140

USA: -172

Over 2.5 Goals: +137

Under 2.5 Goals: -188

How To Watch Sweden vs. USA 

TV: Fox

Stream: Fox Sports App

Time: 5:00 AM ET/ 2:00 AM PT

*Watch FIFA Women's World Cup LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why Sweden Will Beat USA

After this match, the winner of the game will be the top-ranked team left on the field after Germany was eliminated. For Sweden, it starts with defense. They have not allowed a goal since that first goal against South Africa. The most important part is Amanda Ilestedt. The central defender is involved on both sides of the ball. She is third on the team in both interceptions and clearances. Ilestedt is also good at challenging both the forwards and midfield. She completed 80 percent of her tackles in the group stage. When she gets the ball, she is great with it. He completed 88.2 percent of her passes in the group stage, and only lost the ball ten times. To top it all off, she leads the team in scoring. She has three goals in the World Cup on seven shots. Four of those have hit the target as well.

Every goal in these games has come on the set piece for her, all off of corner kicks. Continuing to get corner-kick opportunities will be huge for Sweden. They have scored four goals off of corners so far in this World Cup and created plenty of chances. Creating chances is something that Kosovare Asllani and Johanna Kaneryd has done well for Sweden so far in the World Cup. Asllani has created five chances so far, while Kaneryd has created three chances in the World Cup. Why this is important is both play in the midfield. That has been the weakest position for the United States so far in these games.

Sweden also needs to keep getting quality goaltending. The two goalies have combined for two clean sheets while stopping 11 of 12 shots on target. With 28 shots overall and 11 on target, the expected goals scored against them would be much closer to three than one. If they can keep up the solid defense and good goaltending, they have a chance to win this game.

Why USA Will Beat Sweden

The United States is going to have to be solid on defense to get a win in this game. In the last three World Cups they averaged allowing one goal from 23.3 shots, with an expected goal total of 3.8 goals against. They improved on defense in this World Cup. Against the two best teams in the group, they allowed just 1 goal on 11 shots, with an expected goal-scoring of just .7. There was some bad luck. Jill Roord's goals were through traffic and only had a five percent expected scoring rate. Still, the United States got some luck back. the header by Portugal that nearly knocked out the US hit the post, but it was still a low probability shot.

The issue for the United States has been finished. Andi Sullivan, Lindsey Horan, Rose Lavella, and Sophia Smith have all created six chances in these games, while Alex Morgan and Savannah Demelo have created five each. That is 34 chances, which have led to just four goals. In the last two World Cups, the USWNT has exceeded their expected goals value in the group stage, capitalizing on chances. In 2015, they had an expected goal of 3.3 on 39 shots. They scored four that year. In 2019, they had an expected goals value of 13 goals in the group stage on 82 shots. They scored 18. This year, they have an expected goals value of 8.1 but have just scored four.

If the United States is going to rebound, they have to continue to create chances. Julie Ertz has led the team in clearances, passing percentage and dribbles completed. She had had to play in a defense spot though, but it may be time to move her forward a little to help with this staggering offense.

Final Sweden-USA Prediction & Pick

There is hope for the United States and its predicament. In 2015, they scored just four goals in the group stage. They also gave up one goal, very similar to this year. While they did win the group due to two wins, they were struggling on offense. In the round of 16, they scored two goals to knock off Colombia. They would then go on to score eight more in the next three games and take home the title. The prediction for this Sweden-USA match-up is a lot of defense. Expect a low-scoring game, but the United States finding a way to get that one crucial goal and take the win.

Final Sweden-USA Prediction & Pick: USA (-172) and Under 2.5 (-188)