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In a rematch of their Week 7 meeting, Oregon (13-0) will face Ohio State (11-2) in the 2025 Rose Bowl. It is time to continue our college football odds series with an Ohio State-Oregon prediction and pick.
Ohio State-Oregon Last Game – Matchup History
Oregon and Ohio State have only met 11 teams before the 2025 Rose Bowl but will meet each other for the second time this year. The Buckeyes own the all-time record but have lost the last two meetings, including the Week 7 regular season game. The Ducks won that game 32-31 on a last-second blunder from Will Howard.
Overall Series: Ohio State leads 9-2
Here are the Ohio State-Oregon College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Ohio State-Oregon Odds
Ohio State: -2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -134
Oregon: +2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +112
Over: 55.5 (-105)
Under: 55.5 (-115)
How to Watch Ohio State vs. Oregon
Time: Jan. 1 at 5 p.m. ET / 2 p.m. PT
Article Continues Below
TV: ESPN
*Watch college football LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Ohio State Could Cover The Spread/Win
Stopping the pass is the key to this Oregon offense and the main reason nobody has beaten them yet. Although they are excellent all around, they want the ball in the hands of Heisman finalist Dillon Gabriel as much as possible. The Ducks especially thrive when Gabriel can get going early. In each of their blowout wins, it's Gabriel's arms and legs that get them ahead early.
Ohio State's defense has been stellar all season long, allowing just 5.6 yards per pass, the second-best in the country. In the first meeting, they allowed Gabriel to complete just 67.6 percent of his passes. Only Michigan held him to a lower completion rate.
Led by star defenders Caleb Love, Sonny Styles, and Cody Simon, Ohio State stifled Oregon's RPO-based offense for most of the first half in Week 7. Many seem to forget that the Buckeyes were up 14-6 on the Ducks early before Gabriel and company found their rhythm. The Rose Bowl will be the first time this season that fans get to see how a coaching staff adjusts to Will Stein's offense.
Why Oregon Could Cover The Spread/Win
Contrary to Oregon, Ohio State's well-rounded offense wants to run the ball. They boast arguably the best backfield in the nation between TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins. Yet, in the first meeting, it was Ducks running back Jordan James who out-carried both Henderson and Judkins combined. Limiting their impact again will be key to going 2-0 against the Buckeyes.
Having defensive end Jordan Burch, who did not play in the first meeting, will make a big difference. Without their best pass-rusher in the game, Howard had all day to throw in the pocket, recording a season-high 326 passing yards. It was his only game all season topping 300 yards. It was also an anomaly for the Ducks, whose top-10 secondary has limited opponents to just 176.3 passing yards per game, eighth-best in the country.
The game plan falls back on limiting the ground game. Henderson ran for 87 yards in the first meeting on just 10 carries before being phased out. Ohio State has only had two games in which neither of its two backs failed to reach 60 yards but averaged just 15.5 points in those contests. Aside from Henderson, the only running backs to average more than 5.0 yards per carry against Oregon were Ashton Jeanty and Donovan Edwards.
Final Ohio State-Oregon Prediction & Pick
Despite the teams having already played once before, both sides committed too many mistakes in that game to take much away from it. Had it not been for their errors, both could have easily won in a more comfortable fashion.
However, the biggest discrepancies seem to favor Oregon. It is hard to see Howard throwing for 300 yards against this secondary a second time, especially with Burch now in the lineup. Oregon should expect a bigger impact from the Buckeyes' backfield, but Ohio State has not topped 180 rushing yards since losing star tackle Josh Simmons for the year in the first matchup.
While neither team plays much differently at home or on the road, this will essentially be a home game for Oregon. The Rose Bowl Stadium in Pasadena is significantly closer to Eugene than it is to Columbus. Ryan Day is 1-3 in bowl games when Ohio State has to travel further than its opponent, and 3-1 when it is the closer team.
Final Ohio State-Oregon Prediction & Pick: Oregon (+112), Under 55.5 (-115)
