It is time to continue our college football odds series with a Toledo-Mississippi State prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Toledo Mississippi State.
The Arizona State Sun Devils defeated Texas State late Thursday night, but only by three points, 31-28. Arizona State had a harder time beating Texas State — a Group of Five team — than it had versus Mississippi State a week earlier. It's true that Arizona State was at home versus Mississippi State and that its game versus Texas State was a road game, but Mississippi State should never be a program which is easier for Arizona State to defeat than Texas State. That's the reality of where MSU stands through two weeks this season. Mississippi State is led by first-year head coach Jeff Lebby, who was previously the offensive coordinator for the Oklahoma Sooners under head coach Brent Venables. Lebby did not do a good job at Oklahoma in 2023. The Sooners failed to reach the Big 12 Championship Game. Their offense stumbled on multiple occasions in 2023. The offense was bad enough that when Lebby went to Mississippi State, most Oklahoma fans viewed that development as a positive moment for the Sooners. OU fans wanted to start fresh. They generally weren't happy with what Lebby did last year.
Mississippi State is finding it hard to be optimistic about Lebby after the poor showing against Arizona State. The Sun Devils have a much-improved team from 2023, to be sure, but ASU didn't have much of a passing game and yet was able to run the ball down the Bulldogs' throats. MSU did not stand up physically against Arizona State for most of the game before mounting a late rally which fell short. Not having an especially imposing team, and not having a particularly potent or effective passing game, should rate as an alarming reality for Lebby as he tries to develop the Bulldogs in 2024. We will see what Toledo — a winner over UMass and Duquesne in its first two games of 2024 — can do to test MSU this Saturday in Week 3.
Here are the Toledo-Mississippi State College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Toledo-Mississippi State Odds
Toledo: +12.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +340
Mississippi State: -12.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -450
Over: 59.5 (-110)
Under: 59.5 (-110)
How to Watch Toledo vs. Mississippi State
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET/4:30 p.m. PT
TV: ESPNU
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why Toledo Could Cover The Spread/Win
Mississippi State is just not a very good team. Getting hammered by Arizona State is not a good look, especially since Texas State gave Arizona State a much tougher game than what MSU offered last week versus the Sun Devils. Mississippi State struggled to score, struggled to throw, and struggled to play good run defense against Arizona State. When a team has that many core flaws and limitations, it is hard to trust that team with a 12.5-point spread, even at home. Toledo doesn't have to play a spectacular game to cover the spread. It just has to be moderately good. Toledo can meet that modest standard and cash an underdog ticket plus the points.
Why Mississippi State Could Cover The Spread/Win
MSU is going to be mad and motivated after the poor performance against Arizona State. This is a good bounce-back situation for the Bulldogs, who will be much improved in Week 3.
Final Toledo-Mississippi State Prediction & Pick
We don't have a strong read on Toledo, so while we have doubts about Mississippi State, we're going to recommend that you pass on this game.
Final Toledo-Mississippi State Prediction & Pick: Toledo +12.5