The penultimate week of the 2023 NFL regular season features some games with playoff implications, some games with draft implications, and other games that will tell us more about what we can expect from a team. Keep reading for my best NFL picks for week 17. 

The Steelers and Broncos will be fighting for their playoff lives, the Cowboys will look to wash away the bitter taste of defeat, and the Chargers hope to end a disastrous season on a positive note. 

All NFL odds courtesy of FanDuel.

NFL Odds: Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys

Lions: +4.5 (-104), +188 moneyline

Cowboys: -4.5 (-118) -225 moneyline

This season has been a tale of two completely different teams for the Dallas Cowboys. At home, they have looked every bit the part of a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Meanwhile, when they have needed to travel, Mike McCarthy’s crew has looked pitiful and helpless, more closely resembling a bottom-five team in line for a top draft pick.

Perhaps no two games better describe the dichotomy of the Cowboys this season than a back-to-back home matchup against the Eagles, followed by a trip to Buffalo to take on the bills.

Dallas looked utterly dominant in dismantling the Eagles, winning by 20 points while holding Jalen Hurts and company to fewer than 15. Everything was firing on all cylinders for the Cowboys.

It all came crashing down the following week when Dallas suffered a 21-point loss of their own to the Bills. Buffalo's stifling defense held the Cowboys to just 10 points, while the Cowboys' defense was incapable of stopping Josh Allen and James Cook, or even slowing them down.

Expect Dallas to bounce back at home this weekend.

NFL Pick: Cowboys -4.5 (-118)

NFL Odds: Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

Titans: +4.5 -115), +172 moneyline

Texans: -4.5 (-105), -205 moneyline

To rookies will face off against each other, and CJ, Stroud, and Will Levis are both said to return from injury in this game. And both young single callers have shown flashes of their potential this season, but Stroud has been more dynamic and consistent throughout the year.

Stroud was on track to run away with Rookie of the Year honors and even had an outside shot at winning MVP before a concussion derailed those plans.

Levis wasn’t initially expected to start at all this season, but his number was called in mid-season and he stepped up to the moment and injected energy into his team.

Levis has had ups and downs, but he has flashed potential both in terms of stat lines and making plays on the field that demonstrate what he can potentially be in the future.

For this game, Stroud has had more consistency at the NFL level, he has young, explosive playmakers to throw to.

NFL Pick: Texans -4.5 (-105)

NFL Odds: Pittsburgh Steelers at Seattle Seahawks

Steelers: +3.5 (-115), +150 moneyline

Seahawks: -3.5 (-105), -178 moneyline

Mason Rudolph gave the Steelers an injection of energy and optimism last week. While he may not be the go-to guy or the QB1 for the future, Rudolph showed a willingness to let loose and air the ball out last week.

He also made a concerted effort to target George Pickens early and often which led to Pickens having by far the best game of his young career.

Much has been said about Pickens’ attitude this season, but he is an incredibly gifted receiver. You can’t fault him for being frustrated when he isn’t getting the ball and having a chance to contribute to his team's success. Pickens was engaged last week against the Bengals and made the most of his opportunities. The Steelers benefited as a result, and while he may not put up 190 receiving yards again this week, bettors can expect Pickens to be a positive contributor once again.

On the other sideline, two of Seattle’s most important offensive playmakers are listed as questionable. The Seahawks will need the efforts of both wide receiver DK Metcalf and running back Kenneth Walker III. Without these two players, it will be an uphill battle for the Seahawks to win this game. I'll take the Steelers moneyline and the plus value.

NFL Pick: Steelers +150

NFL Odds: Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos

Chargers: +3.5 (-110), Over 36.5 (-114)

Broncos: -3.5 (-110), Under 36.5 (-106)

The Broncos are fighting to keep their playoff hopes alive, but their ability to fight is in question after two straight losses, including a devastating loss to an awful Patriots team.

A decision to bench Russell Wilson in favor of Jarrett Stidham reads like a partial last-ditch effort to resuscitate the team, as well as the partial waving of the proverbial white flag and a look ahead to next season.

The Chargers showed fight recently in their first game after firing Brandon Staley. While this season is a lost cause for the Bolts, they still have pride. Easton Stick has shown that in his two starts this season. This Chargers team has something to prove not only to the world and media pundits but to themselves as well, regardless of how this season has gone. 

The Broncos beat the Bolts 24-7 just three weeks ago. With the lack of talent on the field in this matchup taking the under is the best call on the board.

NFL Pick: Under 36.5 (-106)