The Minnesota Twins pulled a fast one on the rest of the MLB on Tuesday night when they signed free-agent third baseman Josh Donaldson.
Minnesota was thought to be out on Donaldson, with writers like Dan Hayes of The Athletic suggesting the Twins were pivoting to the trade market. Instead, the franchise doled out what amounts to the largest free-agent deal in team history. Former catcher Joe Mauer signed a $184 million deal in 2011, but that was an extension.
The question is, what does signing Donaldson mean for the Twins in 2020? Will his arrival be enough to cement Minnesota as top contenders for the American League pennant?
Let's break it down.
Adding even more offense…
The first thing that probably comes to mind when considering Josh Donaldson's insertion into the lineup is this: “Wow, that is a lot of offense.” Indeed, Donaldson adds plenty of extra pop to the “Bomba Squad.”
Donaldson slashed .259/.379/.521 with 37 homers last season. He has been an absolute menace at the dish whenever healthy, and last season proved he was capable of remaining on the field for a whole season as Donaldson played in 155 games.
The 2015 American League MVP is also a massive upgrade over C.J. Cron, the guy who he essentially replaces in Minnesota's infield. Cron was respectable in his lone year with the Twins, but he finished the 2019 season with a 101 wRC+, meaning he was a league-average hitter. Donaldson, meanwhile, had a 132 wRC+, according to FanGraphs. In other words, his bat was worth an extra 31 runs in comparison to Cron.
That is a pretty drastic upgrade, especially considering the Twins ranked second in baseball in runs scored while also setting the single-season record for home runs with a whopping 307 dingers.
Minnesota can insert Donaldson into the middle of the lineup and automatically give more protection to hitters like Nelson Cruz, Jorge Polanco and Miguel Sano, among others.
Although Target Field is more of a pitcher-friendly park than Donaldson's old stomping grounds in Atlanta, it might suit Donaldson better given his ability to spray the ball to all fields. Not to mention, he will have even more opportunities to drive in runs than he did in Atlanta, which should be scary for the pitchers in the American League Central.
…and much-needed defense
As nice as it will be to add another slugger to an already prolific lineup, Josh Donaldson probably brings more value to Minnesota from a defensive perspective.
The 34-year-old ranked second among all third basemen in defensive runs saved with 15, according to FanGraphs. Donaldson also ranked 18th among all qualified infielders in terms of outs above average (OAA), according to Baseball Savant. In other words, he is pretty consistently excellent across all metrics.
This is enormous for a Twins team that was pretty underwhelming in the infield, at least from a defensive perspective. In fact, Minnesota ranked 26th in baseball in terms of OAA, according to Baseball Savant. They also ranked 25th in ultimate zone rating (UZR), according to FanGraphs. Unlike Donaldson, the infield leaves much to be desired.
But Donaldson's arrival shakes things up quite a bit. For starters, Sano will have to move from one corner to another. Now, it would be rather questionable to suggest Sano can immediately adapt to a new position, but he has logged some innings there and seems athletic enough to make the fit work.
Secondly, Donaldson is at his best going to his left. Twins shortstop Jorge Polanco — who also tied for last in OAA — is at his worst going to his right. Naturally, this means Donaldson can help alleviate some of Polanco's weaknesses and extend his range up the middle. That factor alone could have a big impact not only on Polanco as an individual defender, but also on Minnesota's pitching staff.
So this is clearly a winning move, right?
Well, yes and no. There are a number of reasons why this deal is a bit hard to assess.
For starters, the Twins just gave a four-year deal to a 34-year-old after showing hesitancy to offer long-term deals to starting pitchers like Zack Wheeler and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Not only does that contradict their thought process, but it also goes against the grain in terms of team needs.
Again, Josh Donaldson brings more offensive production and might do enough to help transform Minnesota's infield defense (or at least the right side). Simultaneously, it is important to remember why the Twins were swept by the Yankees in the ALDS: they lacked starting depth.
Minnesota may have lucked out when Jake Odorizzi accepted his qualifying offer, and they were able to re-sign Michael Pineda, who was having a tremendous second half before he was suspended after testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs. They also signed veteran starters Homer Bailey and left-hander Rich Hill to a pair of one-year deals.
But there are tons of question marks. Pineda is not eligible to return until May 11. Hill underwent surgery in November and is likely not available until June. Bailey had a successful run with the Oakland Athletics last season, but he is hardly a No. 3 starter.
Are the Twins really that confident in guys like Devin Smeltzer and Randy Dobnak? Seems like quite the risk.
Then how should we view the deal?
Josh Donaldson will be 38 by the time the deal wraps up. Given his recent injury history, there is no telling how effective he can be over the life of the contract.
Given the Twins already score plenty of runs, might it not have been worth it to give four years to someone like Ryu in order to address a more pressing need? Not to mention, Ryu is a full year younger and commanded more than $12 million less in guaranteed money.
The Washington Nationals proved just how valuable a deep rotation can be — even in the absence of bullpen depth — in October. But the Twins felt the need to upgrade in other areas, apparently.
In short, it is hard to judge this deal on its face. If Donaldson does indeed give the Twins enough firepower while solidifying the infield, it could be a winner. But if the Twins' absence of starting depth rears its ugly head again, the contract might feel like misplaced funds.
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