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It's finally time for the UFC 297 Main Card as we're set to bring you our betting prediction and pick for the opening bout taking place in the Featherweight (145) Division. Two ranked contenders will go to war as No. 4 Arnold Allen will take on No. 9 Movsar Evloev to open up the Main Card action. Check out our UFC odds series for our Allen-Evloev prediction and pick.
Arnold Allen (19-2) has gone an impressive 10-1 during his UFC career thus far. He was on one of the UFC's hottest winning streaks as he notched wins in his first 10 UFC fights, climbing all the way up the rankings in the process. He was halted in his last Main Event against Max Holloway, so he'll be determined for a win and inserting himself back to title contention. Allen stands 5'8″ with a 70-inch reach.
Movsar Evloev (17-0) has remained undefeated in the UFC at 7-0. He's faced some of the toughest competition the division has to offer and it's often tough for him to find a willing opponent. Evloev has unanimous decision victories in his last three fights and most recently beat the surging Diego Lopes. He stands to gain a ton of momentum in the rankings with a win here. Evloev stands 5'7″ with a 72.5-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 297 Odds: Arnold Allen-Movsar Evloev Odds
Arnold Allen: +160
Movsar Evloev: -192
Over 2.5 rounds: -360
Under 2.5 rounds: +260
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Why Arnold Allen Will Win
Arnold Allen looked to be seemingly unbeatable until Max Holloway showed him that there's levels to the striking game. Well, Allen will have to do a complete 180-turn and focus on one of the division's most dominant grapplers in Movsar Evloev. Through his 11 fights, Allen has posted a 76% takedown defense rate and with how muscular his frame has become, he could be very difficult to bring down for Evloev. He's also a very solid wrestler in his own right, but he should be wary of hitting the mat with Evloev too eagerly in this one. Still, he's the much better striker and if this fight stays on the feet, he should be the one landing the much heavier shots from range.
We saw Arnold Allen fade a bit during his last fight against Holloway, but it was a five-round environment and both guys pushed a tremendous pace through the entire fight. Allen also suffered a decent amount of damage, but passed his first chin test with flying colors and also showed how tough he is to put away. It'll be interesting to see how he conserves his gas tank while Evloev constantly chases the takedown, but he could benefit from fighting in the clinch and trying to wear on Evloev along the cage. If he can find himself in the right position, the guillotine choke could be open with how much Evloev drives his head into the chest of his opponent.
Why Movsar Evloev Will Win
Movsar Evloev has been a puzzle in the Featherweight Division and no fighter has been able to come out victorious against his wild pressure wrestling. He has a Khabib-like style and does a tremendous job at controlling his opponents' wrists against the mat. From there, Evloev controls his opponents' legs and slowly makes his way into mount or taking their back. He's extremely slick with his wrestling and while he only lands takedowns at a 50% clip, he lands just under five per fight and does his best work controlling opponents on the ground. With his last three fights coming by way of decision, the path to victory is fairly clear for Evloev and he'll certainly have the grappling advantage in this fight.
The knock on Movsar Evloev has been that he's not a very exciting fighter and can't finished opponents on the ground. While his game may not be flashy or exciting at all times, the record speaks for itself and there's no question he's coming out of his fights as the clear winner. The power in his hands isn't the greatest and he only has four submission wins, but he's a terror to peel off on the ground and he's the best at negating any offense from the other fighter. If he's able to take down Arnold Allen consistently during this fight, this should end the same way as his recent bouts.
Final Arnold Allen-Movsar Evloev Prediction & Pick
This will be a very competitive fight and it'll be a matter of which fighter can impose their style on the other. The oddsmakers are siding with Movsar Evloev by a decent margin and if he's able to find the takedowns throughout this fight, he should come out with another dominant decision win.
However, Arnold Allen knows exactly what he's up against and he's a great wrestler in his own right. Allen is also much stronger and has a thicker frame, so I think people may be surprised by his ability to turn away some of these takedown attempts. It'll only take a few clean shots on the feet from Allen to stun Evloev, so we'll side with him as the underdog for this betting pick.
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Final Arnold Allen-Movsar Evloev Prediction & Pick: Arnold Allen (+160)
