Dustin Poirier is convinced that Justin Gaethje possesses the tools to accomplish what oddsmakers view as the unthinkable at UFC 324: handing Paddy Pimblett his first UFC loss. The legendary interim lightweight champion didn't merely pick Gaethje to win Saturday's main event at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas—he believes “The Highlight” will finish “The Baddy” emphatically.
✅Dustin Poirier predicts Justin Gaethje will finish Paddy Pimblett
“Justin is just a bigger puncher, and he’ll put himself in harm’s way to land one of those shots
Paddy’s a good fighter, but I haven’t seen him beat anyone— but I think Justin stops him.”
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Speaking on “The Ariel Helwani Show,” Poirier broke down the stylistic advantages that separate the 26-5 fighter from the undefeated Pimblett. The crux of his analysis hinges on something Gaethje possesses that Pimblett has never truly faced: championship-caliber experience in grinding, elite-level battles. “I just think he's been in those 25-minute fights. He's been in dogfights before,” Poirier explained. “I think Paddy's gonna have a tough time stopping him on the feet, and I don't think Paddy's gonna be able to get him down.”
This assessment cuts to the heart of the matchup. Gaethje has competed at the highest echelon of lightweight competition, trading leather with Khabib Nurmagomedov, Dustin himself, Charles Oliveira, and Max Holloway — fighters who have tested his durability and ring IQ in ways few others have. Pimblett, conversely, arrives at this interim title bout riding a nine-fight UFC winning streak without having faced opposition of Gaethje's caliber. His recent victory over Michael Chandler, while impressive on paper, carries less weight in Poirier's estimation. The question becomes: can elite-level experience transcend into a decisive advantage against an awkward grappler in Pimblett?
The grappling chess match will prove crucial. Poirier is bullish on Gaethje's striking prowess and confidence, noting that “The Highlight” is simply “a bigger puncher” willing to absorb damage to land his own shots. For Pimblett to secure victory, he'll require perfect execution across five rounds—maintaining distance, timing his entries methodically, and executing his signature takedowns against a fighter who possesses solid defensive wrestling fundamentals. Sustaining that level of discipline for 25 minutes against an opponent comfortable in high-volume striking exchanges represents an enormous undertaking.
Poirier's conviction runs so deep that he plans to wager on a Gaethje knockout finish. “Yeah, I think that Justin stops him,” the retired champion stated. “Every now and then I partake in sports betting. I'm definitely gonna partake in that. Yeah, I'm going with Gaethje by knockout.”
While Pimblett enters the bout as the betting favorite with -230 odds with significant betting market support despite his lack of resume. Poirier's decades of experience fighting the sport's elite—including multiple encounters with Gaethje himself—lend credibility to his contrarian take. Whether Pimblett can prove the legend wrong Saturday night remains one of combat sports' most compelling questions heading into UFC 324.
