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The time has finally come for the UFC Saudi Arabia Main Event as we bring you a betting prediction and pick for this headliner in the Middlweight (185) Division. Former champion and No. 2 Israel Adesanya will take on rising contender No. 5 Nassourdine Imavov of France as both men look to earn a title opportunity. Check the UFC odds series for our Adesanya-Imavov prediction and pick.
Israel Adesanya (24-4) has gone 13-4 since 2018 en route to becoming one of the most active champions in the sport's history. Following his saga with Alex Pereira, Adesanya lost back-to-back fights to Sean Strickland and most recently Dricus Du Plessis. Now, he'll look to reclaim his throne once again with a win over a top contender. Adesanya stands 6-foot-4 with an 80-inch reach.
Nassourdine Imavov (15-4) has gone 7-2-0-1 in the UFC since 2020. Following a loss to Strickland and a ‘no contest' against Chris Curtis, he won three-straight fights and most recently beat Brendan Allen via unanimous decision. A win here would likely put him next in line for a Middleweight title challenge. Imavov stand 6-foot-3 with a 75-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Saudi Arabia Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Saudi Arabia Odds: Israel Adesanya-Nassourdine Imavov Odds
Israel Adesanya: -155
Nassourdine Imavov: +130
Over 4.5 rounds: -200
Under 4.5 rounds: +154
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Why Israel Adesanya Will Win
Following his loss to Dricus Du Plessis, Israel Adesanya admitted that it just wasn't his night and Du Plessis showed up as the better man during that fight. However, he's had some time to rest a decompress from his time as champion, so we should see a more rejuvenated version of him in this one. He'll also be fighting a pure striker in Imavov, so we could see Adesanya return to his old, aggressive style as he won't have to worry much about the takedowns. It's also his first time not fighting for a belt since 2019, so there will certainly be less pressure on him to win this fight.
Adesanya has been vocal about being content with his run as champion and he's looking to have more fun in the fight game. This leads me to believe that we'll see a much looser, fluid version of Adesanya than we have over the last couple of fights. He'll be working with a stern reach advantage and he's arguably the best fighter we've ever seen in managing distance – expect Adesanya to be varied in his approach as he looks to utilize his kicking game and couple it with his counter striking.
Why Nassourdine Imavov Will Win
Nassourdine Imavov is hitting the prime of his skill set at the right time and we saw a full display of that in his fight against Brendan Allen. Imavov was able to stuff the takedowns and keep the fight on the feet where he's most comfortable. He's at his best when he's popping his job and following it with straight shots down the middle. He makes great use of his kicking game and he's able to get very creative when it comes to his striking. This will, however, be his toughest test to date and will be the best indicator of whether he's ready for a title shot.
Imavov will have to defeat Adesanya using his head movement and blitzing at the right time. We saw a similar approach from both Strickland and Du Plessis as both fighters were awkward enough to disrupt the timing of Adesanya. While Imavov is much more polished as a striker, he'll need to be unorthodox and unpredictable in his movements in order to offer his opponent a unique look.
Final Israel Adesanya-Nassourdine Imavov Prediction & Pick
This is a very high-level fight and we should see both men engaging in a classic kickboxing match. While Israel Adesanya hasn't looked quite himself over the last few fights, I believe the time away and this break from holding the belt will only make him a better martial artist in the long run. Imavov, on the other hand, believes his time is now and is currently hitting his peak in terms of skill.
This fight should be fun to watch from a fan's perspective as we're bound to see some elite striking from both sides. However, Israel Adesanya is too adept at gauging the range and I don't believe Imavov will be able to close the distance effectively. Furthermore, we know Izzy can absorb big shots and I don't see Imavov threatening too much with the knockout.
Expect this fight to carry into the later rounds, but we'll roll with Israel Adesanya to win this fight and show shades of his old untouchable self.
Final Israel Adesanya-Nassourdine Imavov Prediction & Pick: Israel Adesanya (-155)
