The release of Dalvin Cook makes it official. Alexander Mattison is now the No. 1 running back for the Minnesota Vikings and he figures prominently in head coach Kevin O'Connell's plans for the upcoming season.
The groundwork for Cook's release was set by the head coach at the start of the offseason when he made the statement that he wanted to see more from the Vikings running game in 2023. It seemed like a curious statement at the time because Cook has proven to be one of the best breakaway backs in the league, capable of making highlight-film plays on a regular basis.
But Cook struggled in certain second- and third-down situations last year. When the Vikings were successful on first down plays with gains of 5 yards or more, the expectation was that the team would easily be able to convert on second or third downs. However, when Kirk Cousins gave the ball to Cook, there was a tendency to either lose yardage or fail to gain any yards.
This tendency irritated O'Connell to no end. But when Mattison was in the backfield and put in similar situations, he was much more likely to succeed in those situations. That tendency has encouraged the Vikings to go forward without Cook.
This decision will have ramifications in fantasy football as well as for the Vikings fortunes this season. There are no guarantees that Mattison will turn into a star as the team's No. 1 running back, but he has been excellent in his role as the team's No. 2 ground gainer.
Mattison's fantasy potential
Mattison is going into his fifth season with the Vikings, and he has demonstrated that he is a solid and dependable between-the-tackles runner. He runs with a low profile, drives forward with authority and regularly makes positive plays.
He averaged 4.6 and 4.5 yards respectively during his first two seasons, but that average fell to 3.7 and 3.8 yards the past two seasons. He had 134 carries in the 2021 season, but just 74 carries last year. O'Connell is not concerned about the downturn in average per carry or the number of carries, but fantasy players should at least give those figures consideration.
That is not a warning against Mattison. As a No. 1 back, he could have 300 carries or more this season, and that should allow him to blow past the 1,000 yards mark.
Mattison had 5 rushing touchdowns last year despite the limited number of carries, and he could reach double figures in that category this season.
The factor that has not been discussed is Mattison's ability as a receiver. Much like Cook, he is an excellent pass catcher out of the backfield.
He runs solid patterns and he will not drop the ball. He has a catch rate of 83.3 percent for his career, and he gives Cousins another dependable receiver. He had a career high 32 receptions in 2021, and he could easily catch 50 or more passes this season.
Since the Vikings have Justin Jefferson, arguably the best receiver in the league, and a top tight end in T.J. Hockenson, defenses are not going to pay much attention to Mattison as a receiver. That will benefit Mattison's fantasy owners.
Not a proven breakaway threat
Mattison should prove to be a dependable back, but there is no reason to believe he can come close to matching Cook's big-play ability.
Cook has explosive speed, sharp instincts and the ability to make tacklers miss once he gets into an open area. Mattison is not as fast a runner as Cook, and he is going to have to demonstrate he is elusive.
Cook has shown he is capable of breaking plays that are 50 yards or longer. Mattison has not shown that skill. His longest run was a 48-yard burst two years ago and his longest career reception was 28 yards.
Conclusion
Mattison is a competent running back who has waited patiently for his opportunity to become a starter. He has the strength, intelligence and running skill to be successful.
He may not be a first-round choice in fantasy drafts, because the workload could prove to be too much of a burden. He must demonstrate that he can stay healthy and deliver key yards on an every-week basis.
The belief here is that Mattison will succeed and he is worth a second- or third-round fantasy draft pick. He could deliver 1,100 rushing yards or more and 10 rushing touchdowns in addition to 50 or more receptions.
Alexander Mattison should prove to be a fantasy riser in 2023.
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