Just when it seemed like conference realignment was finally slowing down, the Pac-12 decided that they weren't ready to go down without a fight. On Thursday it was announced that the Pac-12 would be locking down deals with a quartet of schools from the Mountain West, with Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, and San Diego State slated to join Oregon State and Washington State in the Conference of Champions ahead of the 2026-27 academic year.
Earlier today, I already speculated about what might be next for the Pac-12, suggesting that Gonzaga and Saint Mary's could eventually join the Pac-12 as basketball only members. I even went as far as proposing that North Dakota State and South Dakota State could make the jump from the FCS as well. In fairness, if the Mountain West does stay in tact — a scenario very much in play, per reports — it's far more likely that the Bison and Jackrabbits would end up there as opposed to the Pac-12.
From the sounds of it, it seems as if the Pac-12 may not be too interested in remaining on the pacific coast, with Memphis and Tulane both early rumored targets coming from the Central Time Zone. At this point, they may as well just poach Rutgers and Maryland from the Big Ten and call it a day, but I digress.
So the question now is, where does the Mountain West go from here? I'd imagine that conference commissioner Gloria Nevarez will surely exhaust every option to make sure the Mountain West stays alive, but in the doomsday scenario where the conference ends up dissolving, this is where the eight remaining members could end up.
UNLV and Nevada – Pac-12
Given the Pac-12 conference's established ties in The Silver State, it feels like UNLV and Nevada are a natural fit for the Conference of Champions, and frankly, it's sort of surprising that these two schools weren't included in the initial list of departures out of the Mountain West. The Pac-12 could absolutely decide to circle back to both UNLV and Nevada in time, especially if some of their east coast options fall through.
San Jose State, Wyoming, Utah State, and New Mexico – Conference USA
Conference USA currently has a wide geographic reach that extends from Miami, FL (Florida International University) to Las Cruces, New Mexico (New Mexico State), with eight other programs in between solidified as members as well. This feels like the natural landing spot for misfits such as San Jose State, Wyoming, Utah State and New Mexico, but the Sun Belt could just as easily make a run at these four programs as well.
Air Force – American Athletic Conference
The American Athletic Conference has no real ties to any geographic region, but what they do have is the other two service academy programs — Army and Navy. In order to streamline the Commander-in-Chief's Rivalry, Air Force could join the AAC, possibly offsetting the potential losses of Memphis, Tulane, UTSA, South Florida or any other schools that depart for the Pac-12.
Hawaii – Independent
Until 1978, Hawaii was an Independent program, joining the WAC in 1979 and remaining there until they made their move to the Mountain West Conference in 2012. Even though the Rainbow Warriors have been a member of the Mountain West Conference for over a decade, because they operate by their own set of rules — i.e. The Hawaii Exemption — they're a natural fit for Independent status once again.
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