HOUSTON – Prior to the start of the 2021-2022 season, the Houston Rockets were in desperate need to find their next potential star in the making. Losing James Harden very early in the prior year prompted various question marks for Houston's future, which was something then coach Stephen Silas had to weather throughout his tenure. Luckily, losing multiple games gives teams a higher chance for a lottery pick. Gifted the second overall pick in 2021, the Rockets drafted G-League Ignite prospect Jalen Green.

At the time, selecting Green was a no-brainer. His athleticism, playmaking, and scoring in the G-League was reminiscent of Harden's early days with the Rockets. With a quick first step, Green can create his own shot and is formidable with a variety of moves to the basket. NBA Draft room gave him comparisons of Ray Allen, Clyde Drexler, and the late Kobe Bryant.

Green's G-League averages of 17.6 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 2.8 assists on 46% efficiency and 37% from deep indicated significant potential for NBA success.

Well, how has it been for the G-League Ignite product? Green's performance in the NBA can be summarized in one word: inconsistent. At times, he's looked like the franchise player the Rockets were searching for. To back this up, Green's put up five 40+ point games and twenty 30+ point games so far in his NBA career.

Sounds like a future scorer in the making right? Not quite yet.

Year Three For Green

At 21 in his third season, Green is averaging 18.5 points on 41.9% shooting and 33.6% behind the arc. While his points average has slipped from his 22.1 career high last season, his percentages have stayed more or less the same. Within these three seasons, Green has yet to amass 43% from the field and 35% from deep. These percentages are on 15.6 field goal attempts per game with a career 25.8% usage rate. Dating back to his rookie season, his pullups and catch-and-shoot have consistently hovered between 33-37%, with hardly any signs of major improvement.

Yes, Green has a remarkable knack for reaching the rim almost effortlessly. The scoring talent is certainly present. However, his decision-making and execution in these situations need serious work. He often charges at rim protectors impulsively, resulting in ill-advised, uncontrolled shots without a clear strategy. In a shooters league, these stats aren't going to compete with a guard drafted in the top three. For the most part, Green has been notably inconsistent in scoring, proving unreliable in delivering points.

On the flip side, Jalen's defense, initially a weak point, has improved significantly this year. On contested shots, Green allows 41.8% overall, with 45.8% on two pointers and 35.3% on three pointers. These percentages are a vast improvement from his rookie year, where he allowed a field goal percentage of 52.8%. While this is promising, his improved defense may be due to Ime Udoka's coaching system.

During training camp, Rockets assistant coach John Lucas brought up how Jalen was handling the increased assignment for defense:

“We've argued a lot. Jalen can guard when he wants to. He just hasn't been required to yet.”

Silas To Udoka Transition

Jalen has the potential to be a good defender, but that's not primarily what Udoka requires from him. Nevertheless, throughout his career, Green has repeatedly had opportunities to prove himself as Houston's X-Factor. Before Udoka's arrival in Houston, Green's scoring surges under Silas occurred during a three-year period when Houston was consistently losing.

This season, however, has been markedly different. Green has only managed to score 30+ points once in 20 games. Nevertheless, the Rockets are 11-9 sitting seventh in the West. In a system implemented by a new head coach that emphasizes ball-sharing among experienced veterans supporting a young core, this is acceptable. However, it becomes more of a concern when one of your players continues to show inconsistency within the system, particularly with fewer touches.

During games into the season, Green has been benched several times due to his lack of production on the court. For example, in the recent wins against the Spurs and Thunder, Green was benched down the stretch, playing only 25 minutes or less compared to the rest of the starting five who all played at least 30 minutes. His minutes were taken over by Aaron Holiday and Tari Eason.

In his third year, Green's athleticism more closely resembles that of former Houston Rocket Steve Francis, and his scoring ability is akin to Jordan Clarkson's, rather than the players initially mentioned in his scouting report. These comparisons are by no means a bad thing. It's just not what was initially expected.

Increased Competition From The Lottery

Where there is still room to grow at the ripe age of 21, already a few players drafted in the top five have made significant strides that Green has yet to achieve; namely, Cleveland Cavaliers Evan Mobley and Toronto Raptors Scottie Barnes.

Rookie of the Year winner Barnes has improved in his third year, averaging nearly a double-double with 20 points and nine rebounds at 47.1% efficiency, and 38% from deep, an 8% increase from last season. Barnes is also padding his playmaking numbers as well, averaging a career-high 5.6 assists.

Evan Mobley has been extremely solid for Cleveland from the jump. In his rookie season, Mobley averaged 15 points on 50.8% shooting and 8.3 rebounds. Most of his scoring comes from inside the arc on pullup shots and in the paint. In year three, Mobley's stats have steadily increased, averaging a double double with and 10.5 rebounds and 57.3% shooting. Additionally, Mobley was a finalist for Defensive Player of the Year and earned his first All-Defensive nod in his second season.

While Mobley's stats aren't astronomically impressive, he's on a playoff team with the likes of Donovan Mitchell, Jarrett Allen, and Darius Garland. Having this type of production with solid efficiency on a playoff roster is more than enough from a top three pick.

Taken Over As The Franchise Star

There's one more player in that draft class that hasn't been mentioned. He wasn't even a lottery pick and is outperforming Green by a landslide. That player is Alperen Sengun, his own teammate. At the 17th pick, Sengun's progression each season has been incredible to watch. From his points, rebounds, and assists numbers, Sengun's gradually increased his production year by year in the NBA. His points per game in his third year have more than doubled since his rookie season, going from 9.6 to 20.5 points. Both his rebounds and assists have nearly doubled as well.

Sengun is also developing a three-point shot in his arsenal, shooting at a 31.4% clip on 2.6 attempts per game. Additionally, Sengun is developing a three-point shot, currently shooting at a 31.4% rate on 2.6 attempts per game. The Turkish-born center is evolving into a crucial asset for the Rockets' future, rapidly emerging as an NBA All-Star this season. The increased production from Sengun has effectively shifted the Rockets viewpoint on their franchise player for the future.

To compare Green to another Rockets teammate, look no further than Jabari Smith Jr., drafted in the same slot as him the following year. Jabari's scoring numbers from rookie to sophomore season may appear the same, but his scoring efficiency has greatly improved, with an 8.2% increase in field goal percentage and 5% from three-point range. This is executed with 1.1 less field goal attempts.

Lucas Still Has Hope

The increased production from Green's teammates and the players mentioned is what we initially expected from the 2021 2nd overall pick. However, Lucas continues to believe in him. Along with defensive mentality, Lucas spoke up about Green's ceiling, fully standing behind his untapped potential:

“In another year, he will really be a professional. Next season [2024-25], he is going to take off like Ja Morant and Devin Booker.”

But will he? It's extremely tough to tell. Green's scoring stats have neither worsened nor improved. In terms of inconsistency, that has been the only consistent aspect. Comparatively, Ja Morant's third and fourth seasons marked his dramatic rise as a player. Averaging 27.1 points with 49.3% shooting efficiency, Morant not only earned his first All-Star selection but also won the Most Improved Player Award in his third year. He led the Grizzlies to a 56-26 record, securing the second spot in the Western Conference.

In contrast, Devin Booker's third and fourth seasons weren't marked by significant team success. At that time, the Phoenix Suns were a laughing stock, with Booker as a bright spot. Averaging 25.8 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 5.8 assists on 45% shooting between 2017-2019, he was the primary reason why few Suns fans attended home games.

Both of these players mentioned made significant strides to their offense year by year. Jalen on the other hand, has yet to make that consistent leap.

The clock is ticking for Jalen Green's breakout year. Although it's improbable that the Rockets will be contenders for the Finals this season, they are managing to win games and could make the playoffs, with or without Green's help.