It is rivalry weekend around the college football landscape. The No. 14 Wisconsin Badgers face the Minnesota Golden Gophers Saturday evening. It's time to continue our college football odds series with a Wisconsin-Minnesota prediction and pick based on Wisconsin Minnesota odds.
Wisconsin displays one of the toughest defenses in the entire nation. During the Badgers' seven-game winning streak, they are allowing just 10 points per game. That is a dominant defense that also is one of the nation's leaders in opponent yards per game at 237.7. Wisconsin has won 16 of their last 17 games against Minnesota and now leads the all-time series 62-60-8. Offensively, the Badgers lost starting running back Chez Mellusi to a season-ending knee injury. Since then, 17-year-old freshman Braelon Allen has taken over. Allen has rushed for over 100 yards in his last seven games and has six touchdowns in his last two games. He now leads the entire FBS in yards per carry at 7.59. Wisconsin is relying on their run-game like usual and it's paying out for them.
The Gophers are going to try and bring home the Axe Trophy for the first time since the 2018 season. Quarterback Tanner Morgan is the leader of the team and is fresh off winning his 25th career game which is a school record. It's been an up-and-down season for the Gophers but if they upset the Badgers on Saturday then that could put them in the top-25 rankings. This rivalry dates back to 1890 where Minnesota beat Wisconsin 63-0, which is still the biggest margin of victory in the entire series. A win Saturday would give Minnesota their first win against a ranked opponent this season.
Let's see how the bookmakers set the Wisconsin-Minnesota line for Saturday evening.
College Football Odds: Wisconsin-Minnesota Odds
Wisconsin Badgers: -6.5 (-128)
Minnesota Golden Gophers: +6.5 (+104)
Over: 39.5 (-108)
Under: 39.5 (-112)
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Why Wisconsin Could Cover The Spread
The Badgers are just 6-5 against the spread this year. Betting on this team is difficult because their defense is much superior to their offense. Meaning, you never know what you are going to get with this team. They continue to dominate the opponent's offensive game plan by not allowing them to do much at all in their past seven games. Offensively, on the other hand, they heavily rely on their run game. Quarterback Graham Mertz only has nine passing touchdowns on the year which is less than one per game on average. They don't have a problem scoring more than 20 points per game but their offense is pretty predictable. Fortunately, no one is able to stop them.
Wisconsin will cover this spread if they stick to their roots and run all over Minnesota. Minnesota is going to know it's coming but will still need to find a way to contain it. Wisconsin's defense will need to force Morgan to commit a turnover or two and that should allow for plenty of breathing room. This won't be an easy game for Wisconsin and this rivalry can get heated. The Badgers' key will be to not let the heat of the moment get to their heads. If that's the case, then Wisconsin should win this game easily.
Why Minnesota Could Cover The Spread
Minnesota's biggest factor in covering this spread will be to limit turnovers and stop the run. The Badgers are going to try and run all over them. The good news is that Wisconsin doesn't pass that often so Minnesota can stack the box a little more. If the Gophers can contain the run and keep it low scoring, then that is going to benefit them greatly. The spread is less than a touchdown, so everyone already expects it to be a close one. Morgan will need to have the game of his life and dissect one of the nation's top defenses. That won't be an easy task but Morgan is capable of doing so.
It's crazy to think that the Gophers are in this position after a nightmare of a start to the season. The Gophers lost their top-four running backs since the start of the season. They rely on two freshmen Ky Thomas, and Mar'keise Irving, who are used in the run game. If those two can play a solid game against one of the nation's top defenses, then that will really show how well-coached this team is.
Final Wisconsin-Minnesota Prediction & Pick
I'm taking the Wisconsin Badgers to cover the spread and retain the Axe Trophy once again. They are dominating the rivalry right now and I'm assuming it's going to stay like that again this year. I imagine it's going to be a close game but somewhat of a high-scoring affair. The over is a likely hit this week at less than 40 combined points. I would consider that as well in what should be an exciting rivalry to be a part of.
Final Wisconsin-Minnesota Prediction & Pick: Wisconsin -6.5 (-128) & Over: 39.5 (-108)
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