It’s hard to imagine that a NBA team with the best record in its conference is not considered the favorite to go to the Finals. Unfortunately, this is the reality for the Toronto Raptors. Even though they have secured the number one spot in the East for the first time in franchise history, their bid for the postseason appears to be riddled with doubts.
That will be the biggest difference from the previous years – this season’s playoffs will be the ultimate challenge for the Raptors.
The amount of online hate has already set a bad tone in the NBA community, as the team’s credibility and winning mentality will be put to a test. This time, a loss will hurt way more than it did in the last four postseason runs.
To top it off, the playoffs this year are virtually the best shot Toronto has had in recent times. The real advantage, which will be a key factor, is not their overall record but the condition of the other teams.
Winning Time
Apart from the Cleveland Cavaliers and Philadelphia 76ers, the other playoff teams in the East simply lack the offensive firepower or star presence needed for success. So, assuming the Raps remain healthy and focused, they will be having their easiest, yet most pressured, postseason run.
It will be easier because most of the playoff teams haven’t yet reached their full potential. Boston will play without Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward, which leaves a big gap on the offense. Miami relies on a great coach and tough players, but nothing more. Milwaukee is too dependent on Giannis Antetokounmpo while several players on the roster aren’t showing up.
The Wizards appear to have lost the spark from last year and have become slower and vulnerable. In the meantime, Indiana has a great team but it lacks one more star player who will turn them into major contenders. In other words, Toronto has the entire offensive and defensive arsenal to deal with any of these teams.
However, the ultimate challenge is going to the Finals. In order to get out of the East, Toronto will most certainly has to face its nemesis: LeBron James. What’s different this year is that the East is no longer dominated by a ‘super team’ led by the King. No more stacked to the T Miami Heat or Big Three Cavs – James has a good group around him, but not an overpowered squad.
As a matter of fact, there aren’t any excuses left for the Raptors. They are the number one team in the East and the window of success is closing on them this year. Next season, teams like the Bucks, Pacers, and Celtics are bound to improve and become massive threats. The time for Toronto to win is now.
But, in order to close the deal, the Raptors have to address their problems. Some of them are minor obstacles, while others are glaring problems.
Bench Production
Let’s start with the minor issues. One of which is Norman Powell’s subpar performance coming off the bench. With his average minutes dropping by just two (from 18 to 16), his overall performance has stagnated to say the least. With an increased turnover percentage and decreased field goal percentage, Powell may turn into what Demarre Carroll was a season ago: a financial burden.
What Norman was able to do in the last postseason was produce both as a starter and occasionally as a bench player. The addition of CJ Miles and OJ Anunoby turned him into a member of the ‘Second Unit,’ which is the pride of the Raptors this season. However, Powell has been the weakest link in couch Dwane Casey’s rotation. Last year, he was a driving force in the series against Milwaukee, but now he's a liability.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zoTvSzycyEw
Getting Most From Jonas
Speaking of lack of contribution, there is a player on the Raptors’ roster who isn’t given the opportunity to put um numbers: Jonas Valanciunas. His limited role stands out in the guard oriented team.
The Lithuanian big man is averaging 22.5 minutes per game – the fewest in his entire career. That is a bizarre case in a league in which centers play at least 30 minutes and often bridge the gap between starters and benchers.
Interestingly enough, Valanciunas is constantly being subbed in the fourth quarter in favor of Jakob Poeltl. As a result, the second-year Poeltl, who is a bit more mobile but not a shooter by any means, has to guard elite big men. This is a task you can ease up in the regular season, but not in a seven game series.
Coach Casey has spoken about the issue, referring to it as a decision based on the team’s quick pace. This is an interesting statement since the Raptors are hovering around the 10th and 15th spot in possessions per 48min. So, in other words, the limited minutes for Valanciunas don’t necessarily translate into winning, even though it looks like it. They are a direct result of the guard-heavy system Dwane Casey has created in Toronto.
The Rotation
This may be a problem in the playoffs. Casey is well-known for favoring guards over other positions. In the rotation this year, bigs are less likely to get major roles on the offensive side. The bench players for the point and shooting guard spots are Fred VanVleet, Dellon Wright, CJ Miles, and Norman Powell. Meanwhile, the power forward and center spots have only one bench player for each of them.
In Toronto’s last game versus Cleveland, there was even a situation in which Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet were both on the court while Valanciunas was out. Since it was a one possession game, Toronto once again relied on DeRozan (or Kyle Lowry in other games) to close it out. A predictable tactic on behalf of Dwane Casey.
In a sense, Casey is right with his approach. Serge Ibaka is not shooting well in the third and fourth quarter this year. Meanwhile, Valanciunas is not a shooting center even though he has a steady mid ranger. So, it’s easy for the opposing team to just double team either DeRozan or Lowry closing the game.
Toppling The King
In spite of all of issues, the team is winning games. Therefore, it’s easy to assume that Casey will not lose his ability to adapt come playoffs. Unfortunately for the Raptors, their biggest problem is not something about their team or their approach. Their biggest issue is wearing number 23 and is playing as a small forward for the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Take a look back to Toronto’s postseason runs in 2016 and 2017. Both times, it all ended because of LeBron James. The NBA community is already predicting that King James will once again send the Raptors home after his tremendous performance in their last matchup.
The question Dwane Casey has not found an answer to is how to stop LeBron. No one on Toronto’s roster has been able to guard him, or at least limit his game. The lack of size hurts the team on defense, and in a series of six or seven games, this can be a massive issue.
Why This Year Is Different
There is a big ‘but’ in the whole picture. This time, Cleveland doesn’t have Kyrie Irving. Instead, Cleveland has Jose Calderon and George Hill, and neither of them are even close to Uncle Drew.
If you are Toronto, this is the perfect time to turn the guard-heavy system into an advantage against the King. The most obvious strategy is to rely on Lowry, VanVleet, and Dellon Wright to be merciless from the three-point line.
DeRozan, on the other hand, has to be the one guarding LeBron and switching with Anunoby and Powell. As a result, they'll hope to top the Cavs with pure shooting while forcing LeBron to abandon his assist-happy ways and commit turnovers. Sounds weird, but Toronto has the fifth best defensive rating in the league. They have the formula, but the King requires extra effort.
Although Toronto is poised to be number one in the conference, it will be a massive embarrassment if the Cavs stop them on their way to the finals, as it would be the third time in a row.
Apart from that, the Eastern Conference, as weak as it has been dubbed, has at least two sleepers that are 100% guaranteed to improve: Boston and Philadelphia. It’s highly possible to see improvement in Milwaukee and Indiana, but that is conditional.
So, right now the path to postseason success is as clear as it can be for Toronto, which will force the organization into taking its biggest test yet: are the Raptors capable of stopping LeBron James and being conference champs? Do they have the winner’s mindset to overcome the doubts?
The time for the final verdict is now.
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