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Victories have been a common occurrence whenever the Houston Rockets take the floor. Holding a 17-8 record for second place in the Western Conference, the Rockets are on pace for one of their best seasons in recent years. It's not like they're just beating run-of-the-mill teams either; Ime Udoka's squad has already bested a couple of powerhouses. Safe to say, the team's young core is finally growing into their own. They're building a rugged identity that revolves around defense and crashing the glass. And presently, they have a good shot at winning the NBA Cup.
Following a (rather controversial) win over the Golden State Warriors this past Wednesday, the Rockets booked a ticket to the NBA Cup semifinals, where they'll be facing the Oklahoma City Thunder (19-5) on Saturday. As indicated by the record, the Thunder are the only ones ahead of the Rockets in the West standings. Both teams already met twice this season, with each holding a win over the other. It's going to be another battle of the league's top two defenses, making it a treat for fans who appreciate hard-nosed, physical styles of play.
Regardless, there are a couple of reasons why the Rockets will pull off an upset this weekend.
The Rockets will overwhelm their foes on the boards
If there's one clear advantage that Houston holds over Oklahoma City, it's rebounding. The Rockets are the top rebounding team in the league, hauling down 49.4 boards per game, per NBA.com. They lead the league in offensive rebounds (13.9 per game) and are second-best in defensive boards.
It all starts with Alperen Sengun, who currently averages 10.6 rebounds per game. Behind him, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason all pull down no less than six rebounds per game each. Add in how backup centers such as Steven Adams and Jock Landale have a knack for crashing the glass despite limited minutes and it's not hard to see why the Rockets give headaches — and bodily aches as well — to opposing big men.
Compare that to the Thunder, who are a middle-of-the-pack squad in terms of rebounding numbers. Isaiah Hartenstein's recent entry may have strengthened Oklahoma City's frontline, but most of the responsibilities currently rest on him with Chet Holmgren and Jaylin Williams sidelined. Jaylen Williams does provide support, but outside their starting five, the Thunder don't really have notable glass-happy players. During their Dec. 1 clash, the Rockets outrebounded the Thunder, 51-46. Houston also hauled down more offensive boards while Sengun and Smith Jr. combined for 28 rebounds (14 each) en route to the win.
Oklahoma City may boast more firepower offensively, but the Rockets can use their size and athleticism as an advantage to throw off the former.
There's no stopping Alperen Sengun
With Jalen Green having an up-and-down season, the Rockets will undoubtedly keep using Sengun as the focal point on offense. The center continues to shine, putting up 18.8 points per game in addition to his aforementioned 10.6 rebounds.
In relation to the Thunder's depleted frontline, Hartenstein will likely have his hands full guarding Sengun the whole night. There's no one else on the Oklahoma City roster that can be placed on the Turkish star without being labeled a mismatch. The thing is, Hartenstein can only do so much, knowing how hard it is to contain Sengun down low. During their last game against each other, Sengun put up a 20-point, 14-board double-double despite Hartenstein playing 30 minutes. Additionally, Sengun just scored 26 points against the Warriors, so there's a good amount of momentum on his side.
If the Thunder do decide to double Sengun, it'll result in an open man. All other Rockets starters are capable of shooting threes, and Sengun himself has a knack for finding cutters and open teammates even while under heavy pressure.
As long as their prized big man shows out on Saturday, the Rockets have a strong chance of making sure an upset is in the books.
