The Phoenix Suns begin their Western Conference title-defense Sunday night when the New Orleans Pelicans roll into the Footprint Center for game one of NBA Playoffs. Phoenix just wrapped up the best regular season in franchise history, going 64-18 and earning the top seed in the west. New Orleans, on the other hand, took control the the eighth seed after defeating the San Antonio Spurs and Los Angeles Clippers in the play-in.
These are two teams on opposite sides of the spectrum. The Suns dominated its way through the schedule while the Pelicans got hot right when they needed to. Phoenix is a heavy, heavy favorite to advance to round two, coming in at -1350 odds to win the series according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
Those odds are no fluke. The Suns were the best team in the NBA this season by a long shot. Don't expect a first-round stunner. Here are three reasons why you should hold off on throwing money on the Pelicans, the Suns are taking this one in four (or five).
In the clutch
The Suns just finished a regular season in which they were one of the greatest “clutch time” teams in NBA history. Phoenix was incredibly efficient in the final-five minutes of games, with a true shooting percentage of 69.3 and 2.64 assist/turnover ratio.
What those numbers should tell you are:
- This is a team that always takes the smart shot at the end of games
- This is a group of players that trust each other.
Chris Paul said at the timeout with 4:55 left, Devin Booker told the huddle, "Aight, under 5 minutes. Y'all know what time it is."
— Kellan Olson (@KellanOlson) February 16, 2022
For New Orleans to take four games off of the Suns, they can't have a 5, 7, even 10-point lead going into the five-minute mark. The Pelicans need to catch fire to start games, putting the Suns in an early hole, and finish them at the end. The Pelicans need garbage time at the end of games to put this team away.
Part of the reason for the late-game success isn't tangible, sure. Some people and players simply don't feel pressure like others do. But a big reason for it is the personnel. Chris Paul will punish teams that leave any openings at the end of games with his distribution.
Guarding the perimeter? Watch for an oop to Ayton. Clogging the paint? Cam Johnson is pulling up from deep. Booker will keep hitting big shots, and Mikal Bridges will lock you up on the other end. This is a well-rounded team. The Pelicans are going to have a tough time exposing weaknesses at the end of close games, because Phoenix doesn't really have many weaknesses.
The bench rolls deep
Playoff time is when the rotations shrink in the NBA. Players like Bismack Biyombo and Aaron Holiday will likely see their minutes shrink to near-zero during non-garbage time in the playoffs. Booker, Paul, Ayton and Bridges, on the other hand, will be playing close to 40 minutes per game, depending on how the series goes.
But the Suns rotation doesn't stop there. Johnson will still see solid minutes for his shooting prowess. Jae Crowder is a player with experience in these situations and can provide solid defense. Javale McGee will be the back-up center behind Ayton since he can play tough defense and protect the rim.
New Orleans will be doing the same thing, but the bench doesn't run as deep. Rookie phenom Herb Jones is going to need to play basically whenever Booker is on the court, as his defense will be crucial to the Pelicans' upset hopes. Jose Alvarado's defense will be important against Chris Paul in certain situations.
Other than that, the Pelicans are going to need to run the starting five for a considerable amount of time. The offensive firepower on the Suns require New Orleans to play CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram for 42+ minutes per game.
Oh, and that other Pelicans star? He likely won't play in the series. He'll stick to 360 dunks in pre-game warm-ups instead.
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