Jaylen Brown has a chance to be a huge part of the Boston Celtics' chances of winning the 2022 NBA Finals! It's time to continue our NBA odds series with a prediction on if Brown will surpass his over/under on series points average. Let's get to it!
Jaylen Brown knows that he needs to have a big-time series if the Celtics want a better chance of winning the title. He alongside Jayson Tatum makes for a dynamic duo and one that the world will finally get to watch firsthand.
Here are some player averages for the 2022 NBA Finals, courtesy of FanDuel.
2022 NBA Finals Odds: Jaylen Brown Series Point Average
Jaylen Brown Over: 24.5 (+104)
Jaylen Brown Under: 24.5 (-136)
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Jaylen Brown Series Point Average
The biggest factor in Jaylen Brown's game is his ability to score off the dribble. It doesn't matter who is defending him, Brown will find a way to beat you one way and has the ability to stop on a dime and pull up. Brown loves to attack the paint. That will be something to pay attention to in this series. With Al Horford, Grant Williams, and Daniel Theis's ability to spread the floor, that opens up the floor for Brown to do his thing. Draymond Green and Kevon Looney will be the primary defenders locking up the paint. If they are forced to stay on their man, then Brown should be able to attack the paint with not much height similar to the ECF against the Miami Heat.
However, averaging 24.5 points per game in the NBA Finals is no easy feat. Jayson Tatum will be the primary option, especially late in the games. So Brown will get a majority of his action early in the game. Have you ever noticed why Brown shoots far more than Tatum in the first half? That is because he understands the game plan in crunch time. If Brown gets hot early, then 24-25 points per game should be right in his range.
Brown will likely be defended by Klay Thompson to start the game, as well as potentially Andrew Wiggins. If Curry is every on Brown, expect the former No. 3 overall pick to attack him every single chance he gets. Gary Payton II will return at some point and he alongside Jordan Poole will be tasked with guarding Brown. I really like Brown's chances against Poole, but Thompson, Wiggins, and Payton are elite defenders and make it a part of their game.
The Warriors' defense is better than people think. When they think of this team, they think of the three-point shooting because of the Splash Brothers. However, this team was third in opponent points per game … not too far off from this top-ranked Celtics defense. If the Dubs play well on the defensive side of the floor as a unit, then it will affect Brown. If you watched the series against the Heat, Brown made a ton of costly turnovers due to his poor ball handling. Brown also doesn't shoot free throws well at just 71% for his career. If Brown can improve those two assets of his game, then his chances of covering the over on his point average is a lot higher.
2022 NBA Finals Prediction: Jaylen Brown
I expect Brown to be very aggressive early on in this series. Brown should have no problem averaging at least 20 points for the series, but 24.5 is too much for me to count on. Take the under here, as Tatum will be the leading scorer for the Celtics for a majority of these games, if not all of them.
2022 NBA Finals Prediction: Jaylen Brown: Under 24.5 (-136)
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