The 2023 Home Run Derby is here and there will be plenty of power on display. This will continue our MLB odds series as we hand out a player to hit the longest home run prediction and pick. We will also let you know how to watch the Home Run Derby.
The All-Star game and the Home Run Derby will be held at T-Mobile Park, home of the Seattle Mariners this year. Not many home runs have been hit in Seattle this season, but that is due to poor hitting and really solid pitching. The ballpark itself is middle of the pack when it comes to being hitter or pitcher friendly. The weather for the derby is going to be beautiful and a slight breeze should help the ball carry a couple feet further. With that said, there is going to be plenty of home runs hit in the event and it should be a lot of fun to watch.
For this article, I will be listing my four favorite picks and giving a few sentences on each. For hitters like Randy Arozarena, Adley Rutschman and Mookie Betts, there is no reason to list them when it is highly unlikely that they will be the longest home run hitters.
Here are the 2023 Home Run Derby Odds: Player to hit the longest home run, courtesy of FanDuel
2023 Home Run Derby Odds: Player to hit the longest home run
Vladimir Guerrero Jr: +240
Pete Alonso: +340
Luis Robert Jr: +400
Adolis Garcia: +700
Randy Arozarena: +750
Adley Rutschman: +2500
Mookie Betts: +2800
How to watch the Home Run Derby
Stream: ESPN app
Time: 8 PM ET/ 5 PM PT
Why Vladimir Guerrero Jr will hit the longest home run
Vlad Jr has the sixth highest average exit velocity among qualified hitters in the MLB this season. The harder you hit the ball, the further it will fly. His launch angle needs to be right, but there is no reason he should not hit multiple home runs over 440 feet in the event.
Vlad Jr does not have a lot of home runs this season, but when he connects it goes a long way. Of all the Home Run Derby particpants, Vlad Jr has the highest no doubter percentage. A no doubter is a home run that would have been gone at every ballpark in the MLB. To do this, you really have to crush the ball. It will take a ball hit further than 470 to be crowned the longest home run, and Vlad Jr has that type of power.
Why Pete Alonso will hit the longest home run
Pete Alonso is a two-time derby champion, so he knows what kind of swing it takes to launch a ball over the fence. However, He also has 26 home runs on the season, so he showcases a lot of power. Alonso has the perfect derby swing and that is why he has won twice already. When the Home Run Derby was held in Colorado (I know, ball flies), Alonso unleashed on a ball that went over 500 feet. In a normal stadium, that ball is still probably going 470+. If he can get a hold of one like that again, he will easily hit the longest home run in this event.
Why Luis Robert Jr will hit the longest home run
Robert is one of the sneaky participants in this event. Not many are talking about him, but he could easily surprise everyone and win the whole thing if he gets hot. On the season, Robert has the fourth most no doubters in all of the MLB with 14. 14 of his home runs would have been gone at every single stadium. Robert crushes the ball and his swing is a thing of beauty. If Robert gets into one, it will go a long, long way.
Why Julio Rodriguez will hit the longest home run
Rodriguez is looking to be the fourth player to win the Home Run Derby in his home stadium. He finished as the runner-up last season and is coming into this event on a mission. The adrenaline in his blood is going to give him a few extra feet on all his swings and he should be able to crush the ball. He hit over 30 in the first two rounds last season, so the power is there. His longest home run this season was 454, and that is tough to do during a game. When he is able to swing freely and for the fences, he is capable of hitting it 450 consistently. As the home crowd kid, Rodriguez can definitely be the one to hit the longest home run.
Final player to hit the longest home run prediction and pick
I obviously did not list the other four participants, but I do not think they will be the ones to do it. If any of them do, I expect it to be Adley Rutschman. However, for this bet, the four names I listed are the ones to bet on. I will refrain from taking Julio Rodriguez (though I am very tempted) and pick Pete Alonso instead. Alonso has the experience, the power and the swing to do it.
Final player to hit the longest home run prediction and pick: Pete Alonso (+340)