Following a Thursday and Friday that featured five upsets, we're down to eight teams left in the 2024 NCAA Tournament. Which four teams will punch their ticket to the Final Four in Glendale, who will fall one game short, and hey, while we're here, you ever think about if we've seen Elite Eight matchups like these before? Well, I have, and we'll be going over them. Let's get to it!

East Region – 3. Illinois vs. 1. Connecticut 

Betting Lines: Connecticut -8.5, O/U 155.5

How They Got Here: UConn steamrolled through the first three rounds of the NCAA Tournament, extending their double-digit win streak in the tourney to nine games with wins over Stetson (91-52), Northwestern (75-58), and San Diego State (82-52). On the bottom of the East Region bracket, Illinois was just as dominant during the opening weekend, defeating Morehead State (85-69) and Duquesne (89-63) before having to grind out a 72-69 win over 2-seed Iowa State in the Sweet Sixteen. Now, the Illini look to pull another upset, this time over the defending National Champions and the clear-cut favorite to cut down the nets on April 8th in Glendale, Arizona.

Elite Eight Historical Precedent: 3. Oregon vs. 1. Florida (2007 Elite Eight) … The '07 Florida Gators entered the NCAA Tournament as the defending champions, the #1 overall seed in the tournament, and the prohibitive favorite to win the whole damn thing for the second straight year. But Florida nearly hit a speed bump in the Elite Eight against an Oregon squad that had won the Pac-10 Championship just a few weeks earlier. The Ducks could score plenty, and they trailed Florida by just two points at halftime, but in the end it was Lee Humphrey — the only one of the Gators five starters who wouldn't be selected in the 2007 NBA Draft — who exploded for 23 points, the second-highest total of his collegiate career, helping Florida secure an 85-77 win.

Something to Keep an Eye On: All year long, Connecticut has played the dangerous game of flipping the switch, and it presents itself differently from one game to the next. Sometimes it's lackadaisical defense for a half, or execution on the offensive end that isn't nearly as crisp as Huskies fans are used to. Inevitably, the Huskies will turn it around, and more often than not, they end up winning by a wide margin, but this Illinois team is too dangerous to do that against. If UConn gets off to a slow start against Illinois on Saturday night, the hole they find themselves in may be a little too deep to climb out of. The Illini are the 9th-highest scoring team in the country and the nation's 6th-most efficient offense. Led by Terrence Shannon Jr., Illinois can fill it up in a hurry and make you pay if you take your foot off the gas pedal for any stretch of time against them.

The Prediction: UConn 83, Illinois 74

West Region – 6. Clemson vs. 4. Alabama 

Betting Lines: Alabama -3.5, O/U 164.5

How They Got Here: I've both picked and bet against Clemson in each of their three tournament games this year. How's that working out for me? I never thought that a middle of the pack team from the ACC — and one that I've been lukewarm on all season long — would make a run as convincingly to the Elite Eight as Clemson has, but that's March Madness for ya. Alabama's run to the Elite Eight makes a little more sense. Bama put up 109 points in their opening round win against Charleston, won a slugfest versus Grand Canyon in Round 2, and then outraced North Carolina in the Sweet Sixteen, knocking out the top-seeded Tar Heels with an 89-87 win.

Elite Eight Historical Precedent: 2. Alabama vs. 1. Clemson (2016 College Football Playoff Championship Game) … Shoot, that's the wrong sport, isn't it? Let's try this again.

Elite Eight Historical Precedent (Take Two): 7. West Virginia vs. 4. Louisville (2005 Elite Eight) … Here we have an unexpected, middle of the pack power conference contender that was, at least by the metrics, not a serious threat to make a deep run in the tournament versus a high-scoring juggernaut that was top twelve in the country in three-pointers made, three-pointers attempted, and three-point percentage. And when these two teams stepped on the floor against one another, college hoops fans were treated to an instant classic. Nearly twenty years later, the names Kevin Pittsnoggle, Mike Gansey, Taquan Dean and Francisco Garcia still resonate. My hope is that after Saturday night's game, we'll be able to say the same thing about guys like PJ Hall, Chase Hunter, Mark Sears and Grant Nelson.

Something to Keep an Eye On: Brad Brownell's group has held each of their three opponents — New Mexico (56 vs. 81.0), Baylor (64 vs. 80.4), and Arizona (72 vs. 87.1) — to at least fifteen points below their season's scoring averages, which feels just a little bit fluky since the Tigers weren't exactly a defensive powerhouse during the regular season. Clemson is 133rd in points allowed per game and 177th in defensive rating. Alabama is by far their toughest test yet, as the Crimson Tide come in as the nation's highest scoring team and 2nd-most efficient offense, trailing only the defending champion UConn Huskies. Will Clemson's defense continue to stifle, or does Alabama just have too much firepower offensively for this run of defensive dominance to continue?

The Prediction: Alabama 79, Clemson 75

Midwest Region – 2. Tennessee vs. 1. Purdue 

Betting Lines: Purdue -3.5, O/U 147.5

How They Got Here: I could give you the rundown of each of Tennessee and Purdue's three tournament wins thus far, but I'm far more interested in the pre-tournament trip down to New Orleans that Rick Barnes and Matt Painter must've taken together to visit a witch doctor who could remove the spell of bad luck that has been cast on each of these two coaches a long, long time ago. I'm still not convinced that this game isn't somehow going to end in a tie, giving the winner of NC State and Duke an automatic berth into the National Championship Game.

Elite Eight Historical Precedent: 3. Purdue vs. 1. Virginia (2019 Elite Eight) … You just knew that there would be parallels between Purdue and the 2018-19 Virginia Cavaliers, given their status as the only two teams to attempt to win a title after losing as a 1-seed to a 16-seed the previous year in the Big Dance. Now that Purdue finds themselves in the Elite Eight in a matchup with a three-seed that won a regular season conference championship but lost in the quarterfinals of their conference tournament, it feels like these two teams are even more connected than we had previously thought. Perhaps it's because in order to exorcise those demons, Virginia had to pull out an absolute miracle of a victory over what was previously Matt Painter's best Purdue team in the Elite Eight.

 

Something to Keep an Eye On: I'll continue to ask the same question ahead of every one of Purdue's tournament games, simply changing the opponent in what is otherwise the very same prompt… what is Tennessee going to do with Zach Edey? Through three games, Edey is averaging 27 points and 16 rebounds per game, and nobody has yet to provide a suitable solution for the big problems that Edey creates.

Doubling him is easier said than done. If you don't get there quick, Edey will have already gotten in good enough position to score around the basket. And even if you time the double just right, Edey has proven to be adept at passing out of those double teams, and the rest of the Boilermakers have played well enough thus far to make opponents pay for devoting too much attention to the Player of the Year. There might not be a single player who can defend Edey straight up, but if I were coaching, I'd be content with having all of my bigs try their best to withstand Edey on their own. Don't send doubles. Don't help. Make Edey beat you for 40 minutes. See if the big man can handle that very big burden, because nothing else has worked.

The Prediction: Purdue 77, Tennessee 71

(Did you really think I was picking Rick Barnes?)

South Region – 11. NC State vs. 4. Duke 

Betting Lines: Duke -6.5, O/U 143.5

How They Got Here: For all intents and purposes, NC State has been playing win or go home games since the 1st round of the ACC Tournament. The 10th-seeded Wolfpack were required to run the table in Washington D.C., winning five games in five days, just to qualify for the NCAA Tournament. One of those wins came against Duke in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament, a 74-69 victory over a Blue Devils team that had won in Raleigh just ten days earlier. NC State would go on to beat North Carolina in the ACC Tournament championship game to earn the automatic bid into the Big Dance, and what followed were wins over Texas Tech, tournament darling Jack Gohlke and the Oakland Golden Grizzlies, and then Marquette.

Meanwhile, Duke has benefitted from a nice draw and some injury luck along the way, getting a pair of wins over 13-seed Vermont and 12-seed James Madison in the opening weekend of the tournament before having to face Houston in the Sweet Sixteen. But Houston's injury woes continued to build, and finally, they caught up with the Cougars. Big 12 Player of the Year Jamal Shead exited the game in the 1st half with a sprained ankle with the Cougars leading 16-10, but from that point on Duke outscored Houston 44-35 while Shead watched from the bench.

“He's the heart and soul of this team,” Houston head coach Kelvin Sampson said after the game, per Adam Teicher of ESPN.com. “We don't have another Jamal. He was the best player on the floor tonight. He's been the best player on the floor every game we played this year except a few. We got a 1-seed because of his leadership, his toughness, his ability to make everybody better.”

Now, the Blue Devils and Wolfpack will be playing for the third time three and a half weeks. How on earth can you beat a rubber match with a Final Four berth on the line?

Elite Eight Historical Precedent: 10. Syracuse vs. 1. Virginia (2016 Elite Eight) … An Elite Eight matchup between ACC foes, including a pseudo-Cinderella who barely snuck into the field versus a team that came into the season with Final Four expectations. In 2016, it was Cuse who overcame a 14-point halftime deficit to upset the Cavaliers by the final score of 66-62, punching their ticket to the Final Four for the first time since 2013, which was their last season in the Big East before joining the ACC. This year, NC State has a chance to end a 41 year Final Four drought, while Duke will be looking to get back there for the second time in three years, and the first time under second-year head coach Jon Scheyer.

Something to Keep an Eye On: What kind of game will DJ Burns Jr. have? In their home loss to Duke in the near the end of the regular season, Burns led all scorers with 27 points. No other NC State player scored more than ten points. Ten days later in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals, Burns had significantly more help. Three other Wolfpack starters scored in double figures, as did DJ Horne, who scored 18 points off the bench. Burns was limited to a pedestrian 10 points, 3 rebounds, and 4 assists, but I'm sure if you asked NC State coach Kevin Keatts, he'd be fine with that.

NC State's run has been built upon Burns' touches in the post, and because the big man looks the way he does — that is to say, gargantuan — he's naturally become the defining figure of this particular Cinderella run. But DJ Burns is by no means a one-man show. In fact, since NC State's run began in the ACC Tournament, Burns is one of five different players who has led the team in scoring, and has only been the Wolfpack's leading scorer twice in their last eight games.

If NC State can get this kind of balanced scoring attack, the Blue Devils are going to have their hands full in the Elite Eight.

The Prediction: NC State 72, Duke 71