Back on May 5, 2018, the Atlanta Falcons thought they were locking up their franchise QB of the future, handing out a five-year extension to Matt Ryan, who — at the time — they thought would remain a strong offensive leader for many years to come.
That long-term investment made on former Boston College and third overall selection Matt Ryan has provided a great return on investment, as he has been a model of consistently ever since entering the league back in 2008. But, there always comes a time for the end of a fruitful relationship, and the 2021 offseason could be that moment.
With a new head coach yet to be hired, team owner Arthur Blank and president & CEO Rich McKay will have a very important offseason ahead of them, as they will be tasked with replacing former head coach Dan Quinn and former general manager Thomas Dimitroff. With key pieces on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball, there is a big-time need for a competent coach and GM candidate to come in and take hold of a talented roster that is facing an uphill battle in a stout NFC South division.
Matt Ryan’s career
Before diving into where Matt Ryan would fit if he were to be shipped out of Atlanta, lets look at what Ryan has produced up to this point in his career.
Through his 13-year career, Matt Ryan has only missed three total games, meaning he has gone 202/205 in possible games played, quite impressive for a starting QB over that long stretch of time.
Stat wise, he has remained in the top half of QBs in the league – he has thrown for 26+ TDs in nine seasons, thrown for 20+ TDs in all but his rookie season, produced 10 seasons of 4K+ passing yards, and averaged 255+ passing yards per game in each of his last 10 seasons. On the flip side, Ryan’s lack of disciple has cost him with turnovers, as 10 seasons of 11+ interceptions is not a good statistic to have, and neither is having fumbled the ball at least 4 times in every professional season.
Matt Ryan has stood the test of time with the Falcons, having gone from Roddy White and Michael Jenkins to Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, so the team has not shied away from making sure that he had strong weapons to throw to on offense. But his turnover numbers are concerning, and for a QB that has to play behind a below-average offensive line unit, those factors add up to a QB that should hit a wall soon.
But, the 35-year-old has been on a remarkably-consistent production level throughout his career, and he has shown no real signs of slowing down, even after having lost trusted TE target Austin Hooper in free agency and WR Julio Jones fighting through countless injuries.
While after the ‘21 season it would seem more likely to move on from Matt Ryan due to an out in his deal, the Falcons could look to accelerate that type of full-fledged rebuild now with new leadership, so trading Ryan is certainly not out of the question.
Unfortunately, the cap hit for Matt Ryan more than doubles for the ‘21 season, as he goes from $18.9 million on the books to $40.9 million, quite a large chunk of change for any team to swallow, especially with the pandemic having wiped out essentially any sort of fan attendance for ticket sale funding.
While that enormous amount will seem to be too much for most teams, there are certainly a few that come to mind that would not be so averse to making that move in a trade.
Detroit Lions
The least likely on this mostly for financial reasons, the Detroit Lions are needing to bring on both a GM and an HC, with reported rumors circulating about their interesting in snagging current Seattle GM John Schneider. Regardless of who they were to bring on, they will need to address the QB position almost immediately.
Incumbent starter and career-long Lion Matthew Stafford is in a similar boat as Matt Ryan, as the Georgia Bulldog alum has big money and multiple years left on his current deal. The difference between these two is that Stafford’s deal allows for a cap-savings out through a trade or a release, ranging from $10M – $20M in savings, depending on the type of transaction and if that move would come before/after the first of June, 2021.
Stafford was drafted one year later than Matt Ryan, but he has been way more beat up than his early-draft QB counterpart, making it a possibility that the Lions would want to move on from Stafford but want to bring in another veteran presence.
The Lions could do much worse than bringing in Matt Ryan, allowing them to use their early draft pick on a more pressing area of need, like offensive line, wide receiver, or defensive line – and as long as they are alright with the cap sheet ramifications implicating their team for a few years, then Ryan would offer a great fit for the first few years of their new HC-GM combination.
Plus, Ryan’s affinity for tight ends would be expanded even more with throwing to T.J. Hockenson, so a sure-fire offensive connection would be a nice little bonus for Matt Ryan as well.
Washington Football Team
A bit of a dark-horse candidate here, the Washington Football Team is in need of at least a stop-gap solution, even with Alex Smith’s feel-good return to the league after his horrific injury. Their supposed long-term fix, Dwayne Haskins, was released with only a few games left in the 2021-21 season due to detrimental conduct and not seeming like a good, long-term fit.
If Washington, who somehow managed to get into the postseason in the dreadful NFC East division, was looking to move on from Smith, this would be the perfect offseason to do so — and maybe get Matt Ryan — while being able to save a substantial amount of money on their cap sheet. While this kind of move certainly would not reflect well upon a franchise already marred in controversy, but hey, it is Washington after all.
Moving on from Smith, either through a trade or his release, would generate either $13.6M or $19M in cap savings, while generating $10.8M in dead cap – this dead cap amount would either be kept solely in 2021 (if a trade/release was made before 6/1/21) or would be evenly spread between ‘21 and ‘22 (if a trade/release was made after 6/1/21).
Already projected to be coming into the offseason with fifth-most cap space at just over $40M, Washington could quite comfortably fit Matt Ryan into their future plans, both monetarily and scheme-wise.
For the Falcons, they could look to ship Matt Ryan out and get some decent value in a return, which would most certainly resemble some sort of combination of picks and players, similar to what Washington acquired Smith for from the Kansas City Chiefs back in 2018. So something like a 2021 third-round pick, a 2022 sixth-round pick, and RB Bryce Love could possibly be enough to justify moving Ryan.
Washington would be able to push the long-term QB solution down the road a few years while using this draft to help shore up other areas.
Indianapolis Colts
Probably the juiciest option in this league based solely on opportunity and cap space, the Indianapolis Colts slide into the best fit for Matt Ryan moving forward, but only based on one reason – the status going forward of Philip Rivers.
The former Chargers QB who came over to the Colts this past offseason looks to be leaning towards hanging up the cleats after this season, which would immediately open up a big-time option for any established signal-caller to come in and run a playoff-bound team.
Currently sitting with over $63.6 million in cap space for next season, the Colts are set to pounce on any big-time free agents this offseason, but they would be smart to minimally kick the tires on the price for Matt Ryan, who could seamlessly plug into this offense and keep it chugging right along. With Jonathan Taylor moving into his second season, a plus-plus offensive line (the best Ryan would ever get to play behind), and an established core of WRs and TEs, Ryan could see a career surge in his final few years, potentially even putting him in line for a string of postseason success in Indy.
While Michael Pittman, Zach Pascal, and ol’ reliable T.Y. Hilton are certainly not Julio Jones or Calvin Ridley, Matt Ryan would be set up well in Indy – a hidden benefit of this move as well would be that Ryan would continue to keep playing inside for half a season, not to mention in Houston (inside) and Jacksonville (warm).
The Colts are a very smartly-ran team and would probably be wary of making this move, but understanding their window of competition and always being one step ahead is exactly what got them into this position – why not take that chance?
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