The North Carolina Tar Heels take on the Virginia Cavaliers. Check out our ACC Tournament odds series for our North Carolina Virginia prediction and pick. Find out how to watch North Carolina Virginia.
The North Carolina Tar Heels have arrived at their ultimate moment of truth. They will definitely not make the NCAA Tournament without winning this game in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals in Greensboro. North Carolina, as is well documented, has just one Quad 1 win heading into tournament play. The Tar Heels simply must stack together some wins, beginning with this one, to have a realistic shot. You will get differing opinions on how many games the Tar Heels truly need to win to make the NCAA Tournament. Some think this win against Virginia will be enough. Others think UNC has to win its semifinal game on Friday after getting by the Cavaliers here. Some think that UNC needs North Carolina State to beat Clemson, and that UNC must beat State specifically. In other words, if Clemson beats State, some analysts think North Carolina won't derive enough value from beating Clemson. Those analysts think North Carolina needs to win the whole ACC Tournament to make the field. What everyone agrees on, however, is that if UNC loses to Virginia, it's over. The Tar Heels will go to the NIT.
The Virginia Cavaliers shared the ACC championship this season, but they have not played well over the past three weeks. They were blown out by Boston College and scored shaky, close wins over bad teams (Louisville, Notre Dame). This is a time for Virginia to improve its NCAA Tournament seeding position and re-establish a measure of confidence heading into the Big Dance next week.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the North Carolina-Virginia ACC Tournament odds.
ACC Tournament Odds: North Carolina-Virginia Odds
North Carolina Tar Heels: +2.5 (-105)
Virginia Cavaliers: -2.5 (-115)
Over: 129.5 (-110)
Under: 129.5 (-110)
How To Watch North Carolina vs. Virginia
TV: ESPN
Stream: ESPN+
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET, 4:00 p.m. PT
*Watch North Carolina-Virginia LIVE with fuboTV (Click for free trial)*
Why North Carolina Could Cover the Spread
This is a huge game for North Carolina, and it's not a huge game for Virginia. Sure, the Cavaliers would love to beat an ACC competitor and advance in the ACC Tournament, but it's not life or death for them. This game will, on the other hand, determine if North Carolina has any chance of making the NCAA Tournament. This is a very big deal for the Tar Heels, and that large gap in motivation and urgency between the two teams should enable North Carolina to play with a lot more passion, hunger and toughness. The Tar Heels will win this game and advance to the ACC Tournament semifinals on Friday night in Greensboro.
Why Virginia Could Cover the Spread
The Cavaliers are a good team. They might not be great, but they're not mediocre, either. All they really need to win is a moderately decent game from their shooters and scorers. Virginia can be relied on to play great defense. This will bottle up North Carolina guard Caleb Love and limit what the Tar Heels can do offensively. As long as Virginia shoots at a reasonable percentage and doesn't struggle profoundly (let's say near 40 percent from the field), the Hoos have to like their chances.
We can't avoid mentioning the other really big plot point of this game: North Carolina big man Armando Bacot suffered a moderate ankle injury against Boston College Wednesday night. The spread for this game has moved in Virginia's direction based on worries about Bacot's health. If Bacot cannot be effective, that is obviously a huge advantage for UVA.
Final North Carolina-Virginia Prediction & Pick
The Tar Heels have a lot more motivation, but Bacot's health is a question. Stay away from this one.
Final North Carolina-Virginia Prediction & Pick: North Carolina +2.5
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