If you were to go all the way back to September, most Alabama football fans would probably have told you that they weren't so certain that their team would be in the College Football Playoff (CFP). That's because, in the Crimson Tide's second game of the season, they lost to Texas by 10 points, and then followed that up by only beating USF 17-3 the next week. Now, in November, after the second week of the College Football Playoff rankings, those fans would probably say they deserve to be in the playoff.
So what changed? Well, first and foremost, Alabama didn't let the Texas loss spiral into others. They're still just a one-loss team that's now ranked No. 8 in the country. It hasn't always been pretty for this year's Alabama football team, mind you, but Nick Saban has gotten his team back in the thick of things, sustaining the usual success that's now not just expected in Tuscaloosa but demanded.
Also, Alabama has finally found their offensive identity now with quarterback Jalen Milroe. Offensive coordinator Tommy Rees has been allowing Milroe to play his game, which is allowing Milroe to use his athleticism to win games. There's been a vast difference from Milroe in the first half of the season to the second half, and he's largely why Alabama is still in the playoff discussion.
But just because Alabama is back in the playoff discussion now doesn't mean that they will sneak their way back into the top-4 of the CFP rankings. They're going to need some help along the way. The Crimson Tide just has to keep winning, of course.
Alabama football has to win out
It goes without saying that Alabama football has to win out to avoid missing the CFP for the second consecutive season. Their only games left are against unranked opponents after beating No. 14 LSU last Saturday, which will not boost them further up the CFP rankings. They'll be on the road twice, starting with Kentucky this weekend, but will then host UTC, an FCS team, finishing up with the Iron Bowl at Auburn.
Alabama only has to beat either Kentucky or Auburn to make it to the SEC Championship Game, but beating both puts them in position to make the top-4. More than likely, Alabama will be meeting Georgia in the conference title game, should the Bulldogs win out, and/or Missouri beats Tennessee this weekend. That would then create a top-10 matchup for the conference championship. That's the biggest need for Alabama football at this juncture.
The first real resume builder for Alabama to be considered in the top-4 of the CFP rankings would be beating Georgia, who would presumably be a top-4 team. That would pad the Crimson Tide's resume with a significant win, giving them wins over three top-20 opponents for the season. The problem would be those that lie ahead of them at that point, which for now is seven teams, including the Bulldogs.
Alabama football still has to worry about Texas
The biggest hurdle for Alabama football is perhaps still Texas, who marked the only blemish thus far for Saban's team this year. If Texas wins out, including the Big 12 Championship Game, their win over Alabama gives them the head-to-head tiebreaker. However, is there any way the committee would consider Alabama over Texas if the Crimson Tide beats a No. 2 Georgia team? It's not impossible but still unlikely. Texas would have three for sure and maybe four wins over top-25 ranked opponents to hold their hat on, with the most important of those being then No. 3 Alabama.
Texas, with only one loss, gets into the playoff over a one-loss Alabama. The Longhorns don't face a single ranked opponent the rest of the season, unless it will be in the conference title game. Alabama needs Texas to lose one more game, while they keep winning.
Alabama football has to worry about other one-loss teams
However, what happens between current No. 5 Washington and No. 6 Oregon? Both look to be headed towards a rematch with each other in the Pac-12 Championship Game. The Huskies are the only team on the outside looking in at the top-4 with an undefeated record at the moment. If they win out and beat Oregon, there's no way they're left out of the top-4 with Ohio State and Michigan playing one another at the end of the season. Or would they?
Last year, both Ohio State and Michigan were in the playoff, with the Buckeyes losing to the Wolverines. The Buckeyes got in at No. 4 with one loss, and so did TCU with one loss at No. 3, with their lone loss coming in the Big 12 Championship Game. But everyone else behind them had two or more losses. This year, there could be a number of one-loss teams that could be considered in the top-4.
For Alabama football to get in, they're going to need these one-loss teams, which could potentially be Ohio State, Michigan, Georgia (loss to Alabama in SEC title game), Washington, Oregon, and Texas to all suffer at least one more loss to be sure of making their way into the top-4 of the CFP rankings.