Nate Oats and the Alabama Crimson Tide take on Hubert Davis’ North Carolina Tar Heels in this Sweet 16 matchup. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with an Alabama-North Carolina prediction and pick.
Alabama is headed to the Sweet 16 for the second straight year under Nate Oats. The Tide made quick work of Charleston on Friday then grinded one out against Grand Canyon on Saturday. Point guard Mark Sears is playing out of his mind, proving why he was selected second-team All-American. With Latrell Wrightsell expected to play, the Tide will be at full health once again.
After missing last year's tournament, Hubert Davis has North Carolina primed for another run. Michigan State jumped out to a 26-14 lead in the first half, but the Tar Heels dug in defensively and forced their way inside. A lot of media called Carolina the weakest No. 1 seed, and the Heels said watch this. Armando Bacot has been a monster, winning KenPom game MVP against both Wagner and Michigan State.
The matchup between RJ Davis and Mark Sears is going to make for appointment television. Two of the best guards in college basketball face off with a total of 173.5, what more could you ask for?
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
March Madness Odds: Alabama-North Carolina Odds
Alabama: +3.5 (-104)
Moneyline: +146
North Carolina: -3.5 (-118)
Moneyline: -178
Over: 173.5 (-105)
Under: 173.5 (-115)
How to Watch March Madness
Time: 9:39pm ET/6:39pm PT
TV: CBS
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Why Alabama Will Cover The Spread/Win
First, North Carolina is 3-6 this year when allowing 80 or more points. It is no secret that this Carolina team has offensive flash but they win with their defense. For some reason, the Heels have been vulnerable when they have gotten into these close high-scoring games. There are most likely multiple factors that play into it, but one may be the lack of depth for North Carolina. Where Alabama is 133rd nationally in bench minutes, North Carolina is 332nd. The Heels only play seven guys, with big man Jalen Washington spelling Bacot for about five minutes a game.
Alabama is such a hard team to predict due to the variance that their play style presents. In SEC play, the Tide played the fastest tempo and shot by far the most threes. The numbers have dipped with the Latrell Wrightsell injury, but Alabama has still made double-digit threes in 19 out of 34 games. Alabama’s ability to explode offensively makes them a constant threat.
Additionally, Alabama’s offensive Achilles heel will not be taken advantage of by the Tar Heel defense. In the four games played against the two highest turnover-forcing teams in the SEC (Tennessee and Auburn), the Tide went 1-3. Thankfully, where the Alabama offense ranked 11th in the SEC in turnover rate the North Carolina defensive turnover rate ranked 13th in the ACC.
Why North Carolina Will Cover The Spread/Win
In March, the two prerequisites everyone talks about are guard play and experience. North Carolina happens to have the best of both worlds. RJ Davis ranks 9th in KenPom’s Player of the Year ratings and as a team, the Heels are the 6th-oldest team in the nation. Mississippi State folded under the physical Spartan defense. The response from the Heels after falling into an early hole shows you all you need to know.
North Carolina can take away one of Alabama’s best offensive weapons – rebounding. The Tide sneakily ranks 26th nationally in offensive rebound rate at 34.8%. However, North Carolina ranks 6th nationally on the defensive glass allowing an offensive rebound rate of just 23.2%. Alabama loves their three-ball, but the offensive rebound kick-out opportunities will be few and far between.
Lastly, in five of North Carolina’s seven losses, Armando Bacot has four or more fouls. Bacot is such a big piece of the puzzle, he must stay out of foul trouble. Thankfully, with Alabama’s three-point rate being so high opposing bigs can stay out of foul trouble. The more Bacot is on the floor, the more Alabama’s offensive rebounding gets taken away. However, the backups can clean up the defensive glass at a high rate. Jae’Lyn Wither (6-9) has a defensive rebound rate of 22.3% and Jalen Washington (6-10) at 21.6%. Both are not much of a drop off from Bacot’s 25.3%.
Final Alabama-North Carolina Prediction & Pick
According to VSiN Pro’s betting splits, North Carolina has the highest betting handle of the Sweet 16 with 84% of total bets and 87% of the handle on -4.5 and 84% of bets and 81% of the handle on -192 ML. With all of the favorites winning this weekend, Vegas got absolutely crushed. Saturday was the biggest net loss for the books of 2024. But you know what they say–when it rains, it pours. The rebounding will be the difference here, give me Carolina to cover the short spread.
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Final Alabama-North Carolina Prediction & Pick: North Carolina -3.5 (-118)
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