Ranked 6th in the nation, Rick Barnes and the Tennessee Volunteers take on Nate Oats’ Alabama Crimson Tide in this massive SEC matchup. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with an Alabama-Tennessee prediction and pick.

Nate Oats brings his squad to Knoxville tied with Auburn atop the SEC standings at a perfect 4-0. The leader of the pack, Mark Sears, has quickly ascended to conference player of the year status. Surrounding Sears with lethal shooters, this Alabama offensive attack is not afraid of anything.

Rick Barnes also has a conference player of the year candidate in Northern Colorado transfer, Dalton Knecht. Inserting Knecht with four returning starters has given the Volunteers a spark that has not been there in years past. 

Alabama comes into this matchup ranked 7th on KenPom, Tennessee 6th. The conference’s best offense against the best defense, something has to give. 

Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Basketball Odds: Alabama-Tennessee Odds

Alabama: +5.5 (-105)

Moneyline: +198

Tennessee: -5.5 (-115)

Moneyline: -245

Over: 160.5 (-110)

Under: 160.5 (-110)

How to Watch Alabama vs. Tennessee 

Time: 2:00 pm ET/ 11:00 am PT

TV: ESPN2

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why Alabama Will Cover The Spread/Win

Tennessee’s lack of bench scoring could cost them big time in this matchup. This would be recognized as a larger issue after the Georgia game had Dalton Knecht not gone unconscious for the final ten minutes of that one. The Vols have been able to skate around the issue thanks to Knecht scoring 28 or more points in each of the last three games. As good as Knecht has been, maintaining that level of offensive efficiency seems near impossible. 

Over this three-game stretch, Knecht has posted KenPom offensive ratings of 136, 149, and 151. This is the first time in Knecht’s career posting an offensive rating of 130 or higher in three straight games. It has not made a difference in the past three games, but Alabama does have one of the best perimeter wing defenders in the conference with Rylan Griffin. 

Shockingly, Alabama actually has a better in-conference defensive efficiency than Tennessee does. The Tide have the best assist ratio defense in the SEC to go along with a top-three defensive foul rate. In summary, Alabama has been forcing teams into inefficient isolation offense, while also defending without fouling. This bodes well for Alabama because Tennessee shoots free throws at the lowest rate in the SEC. It is a tough task, but if the Tide can slow down Knecht, the Volunteers offense tends to go through lengthy droughts. 

Why Tennessee Will Cover The Spread/Win

In nine games at Thompson Boling Arena, Tennessee has held opponents to 27% from three or worse in seven of the nine. They have held eight out of nine under their season average. Specifically, the Vols force teams to shoot an average of -8.57% worse than their full-season numbers when playing at Thompson Boling Arena. One can argue Tennessee boasts the best perimeter defense Alabama will face all season. This is significant because Alabama takes and makes the most threes in the SEC through four games. 

Importantly, we have seen the confidence of Jahmai Mashack skyrocket in conference play. The more Mashack plays, the better Tennesse is. The other guard bench option, Jordan Gainey, is in a brutal shooting slump going 1-14 from three over his past five games. Maschack is one of the best on-ball defenders not only in the conference but in the whole country. While Mashack will not add much offensively, he leads the team in steal rate. 

Additionally, do not put too much significance into this, but Mark Sears hurt his ankle on Tuesday against Missouri. He was able to come back in the second half but Nate Oats held him on the bench for the majority of the half as a precaution. Surely Sears will play against Tennessee, but when being guarded by the best point guard defender in the conference (Zakai Zeigler), any mobility restrictions would be problematic. 

Final Alabama-Tennessee Prediction & Pick

In the past ten years, Alabama and Tennessee have played 12 times. The average total points scored over the past 12 meetings is 128.4, with a single-game high of 141. Yes, both teams are playing faster and more efficient offense than previous years. Both teams have seen their offensive efficiency decrease in SEC play compared to the non-conference–Alabama -7.3, and Tennessee -1.5. 

Even if this matchup becomes the highest-scoring game in the past ten years, it would have to do so by more than 20 points to reach the total. Combine the historical trends with Alabama’s improved defense and Tennessee’s imminent offensive regression, and the under looks fantastic. Also, Alabama has only hit this total once (168 vs Missouri) in four SEC games. The same goes for Tennessee, just once (164 @ Georgia) in their four games. 

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Final Alabama-Tennessee Prediction & Pick: Under 160.5 (-110)