The time has finally come for the Main Event of UFC Vegas 89 from the Apex as we'll see a headlining matchup between top-flight contenders in the Flyweight (125) Division. No. 8-ranked Amanda Ribas of Brazil will take on former Strawweight Champion Rose Namajunas in a high-level five-round fight. Check out our UFC odds series for our Ribas-Namajunas prediction and pick.
Amanda Ribas (12-4) has gone 7-3 in her very active UFC career since 2019. She's 3-2 over her last five fights and has seen a massive increase in her competition since becoming ranked. After a loss to Maycee Barber, she bounced back with a knockout win over Luana Pinheiro in her last fight. She'll look to stand her ground against one of the world's best. Ribas stands 5'4″ with a 66-inch reach.
Rose Namajunas (11-6) has gone 9-5 in her UFC stint while becoming Champion of the Strawweight Division. After defending against Zhang Weili, she subsequently lost her title to Carla Esparza and decided to move up a weight class. She lost her last fight to Manon Fiorot and will look to find her first win in her new home at 125. Namajunas stands 5'5″ with a 65-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of BetOnline.
UFC Vegas 89 Odds: Amanda Ribas-Rose Namajunas Odds
Amanda Ribas: +180
Rose Namajunas: -210
Over 4.5 rounds: +110
Under 4.5 rounds: -140
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Why Amanda Ribas Will Win
After starting her career at an electric 4-0 with two submission wins, Amanda Ribas has since seen a massive step-up in competition through the flyweight division. She's had to draw Katlyn Cerminara, Maycee Barber, and Viviane Araujo in her last five fights and she's still been able to manage a 3-2 record during that stretch. She's as tough as fighters come and she's only been finished once over the last three years. Her striking output ranks among the highest in the division and she's also capable of pulling off unlikely submissions from the bottom.
Amanda Ribas looked to be in her best form yet against Luana Pinheiro as she met her opponent head-on with her aggressive kickboxing style. Ribas is at her best when she's blitzing forward and putting combinations on her opponents. She throws with bad intentions and no matter the situation, she's always marching forward. It will take a lot from Namajunas to effectively stop Ribas from walking her down.
Why Rose Namajunas Will Win
Rose Namajunas successfully captured the Strawweight title and defended her belt against Zhang Weili a second time. She was seemingly at the top of her game heading into the Carla Esparza fight, but we clearly saw a different version of her enter the cage on that night. She was extremely gun-shy in letting her striking loose and it resulted in a bad overall fight from a viewing perspective. She was much more active and rejuvenated during her first look at Flyweight, but clearly Fiorot proved to be too much, too fast. She'll have a better chance here against an opponent she matches up well with in all areas of the fight.
Rose Namajunas will only win this fight if she returns to the style that made her a Strawweight champ. She needs to fight with high output and aggressive striking while walking down her opponent. She's got some of the best jiu jitsu in all of women's MMA and she'll likely have to find her way out of a few tough situations here. If she shows up at the top of her striking game, we should see a masterclass from her as she moves in and out of range while slipping shots and landing counters of her own.
Final Amanda Ribas-Rose Namajunas Prediction & Pick
This fight will be very interesting from a striking perspective as both women are very aggressive on the feet. Amanda Ribas finds her aggression from her pace and ability to keep walking forward with striking combinations. Rose Namajunas is much more calculated in her attack and while she's prone to starting slow, she's extremely accurate and measured with every strike she throws.
Amanda Ribas will benefit from making this fight as ugly as possible and working her way inside on Namajunas. She's more willing to stand in the pocket and get hit, but it results in an overwhelming force for her to get her own shots off. If she can put Namajunas on her heels, she could eventually smother her with the boxing.
Rose Namajunas has seen strikers better than Ribas, but she doesn't typically do too well when she's being backed up. Her power isn't the greatest and she typically finds wins from submissions or point-fighting her way to victory. She'll have to ramp-up her aggression and meet Ribas in the center of the octagon to be successful here.
For our prediction, we're going to have to ride with Amanda Ribas to get the win. Her last fight against a skilled striker like Luana Pinheiro really showed her power and energy advantage over much of the division. Rose Namajunas hasn't really looked like herself since the Esparza fight and I worry her striking won't do a ton of damage when transferring to this bigger division. We'll ride Amanda Ribas as the profitable underdog, but don't be surprised if we see a back-and-forth war throughout this one.
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Final Amanda Ribas-Rose Namajunas Prediction & Pick: Amanda Ribas (+180)
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