Ranked fourth overall in the nation, Tommy Lloyd’s Arizona Wildcats will take on Dusty May’s FAU Owls. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with an Arizona-FAU prediction and pick. 

Coming off of a bounce-back victory over Alabama, Tommy Lloyd and his squad take a short trip west to Las Vegas. After trailing 43-50 at the 16:31 mark in the second half, Arizona turned to their interior presence to take over. The Wildcats shot 4-17 (23.5%) from behind the arc, yet still managed to put up 87. This was Caleb Love’s first game all season without a made three. Arizona will look to bump those shooting numbers up as they take on an FAU team with elite continuity.  

Dusty May’s squad quickly responded after their defense was doubted after their 89-98 loss to Illinois. The Owls have held their past two opponents to 60 points (FIU) and 54 points (St. Bonaventure). FAU has also returned Nick Boyd from injury, which is far more important than most think. This is the Super Bowl of FAU’s non-conference. After this contest, FAU will only play five games against KenPom top 100 teams. 

Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Basketball Odds: Arizona-FAU Odds

Arizona: -7 (-110)

FAU: +7 (-110)

Over: 161 (-110)

Under: 161 (-110)

How to Watch Arizona vs. FAU 

Time: 3:00 pm ET/ 12:00 pm PT

TV: FOX

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why Arizona Will Cover The Spread

A game like this is why it is so important to watch the games and not just handicap from the numbers. While FAU ranks 38th in defensive efficiency, they have allowed 86 or more points in their three toughest games (Butler, Texas A&M, Illinois). Yes, I am leaving out the Virginia Tech game because I think Tech is horrible. In those three games combined, the only individual players to not record a KenPom O-Rating above 100 were Illinois’ Quincy Guerrier and Dain Dainja. You can argue the only reason they did not get involved offensively is because Domask and Shannon Jr were both having career nights. In summary, against the toughest competition this year the FAU defense has floundered. 

Additionally, Arizona has the pieces to take advantage of this. The Wildcats shoot the 24th best percentage (56.7%) inside the arc. Even more significantly, Arizona gets 55.3% of their total points from inside the arc which is 71st nationally. So, not only does Arizona shoot a high clip from two-point range but they do it often. 

Lastly, Tommy Lloyd’s bunch should be able to dominate the glass both offensively (3rd) and defensively (12th). Oumar Ballo has the physicality to make Vlad Goldin uncomfortable all day long. More importantly, Arizona has a huge advantage when Goldin takes a rest. Arizona backup 7-2 Motiejus Krivas has a major size advantage over FAU’s 6-8 Giancarlo Rosado. FAU usually gets a solid rebounding effort from 6-4 Johnell Davis, but he will have to take on one of the most physical players in the nation 6-7 Keshad Johnson. In summary, Arizona should be able to win the paint for a full forty minutes. 

Why FAU Will Cover The Spread

Initially, we must emphasize the importance of 6-3 sophomore Nick Boyd. Boyd played in the first three games but then missed the next seven. In his return against St. Bonaventure, Boyd played 20 minutes and went for 7 points (1-3 3pt), 3 rebounds, 1 assist, and no turnovers. Is that Illinois result different if FAU has a healthy Boyd? It is possible. Per BartTorvik, through four games played Boyd ranks 4th in the American conference in box +/- (+9.4). Last year Boyd finished 9th in Conference-USA and 3rd on FAU in box +/- (+5.3). In summary, he is incredibly important to what this team wants to do. 

Secondly, the defensive intensity has shot through the roof since the Illinois game. Against FIU, the Owls forced 17 turnovers and 21 against St. Bonaventure. The only two offensive categories that Arizona ranks outside the top 100 in, are their steal and turnover percentages. Both Arizona point guards, Kylan Boswell and Jaden Bradley have a turnover rate of over 20%. For FAU, both Johnell Davis and Alijah Martin rank top 200 nationally in individual steal rate. In summary, I predict the FAU defense will turn over the Arizona offense more than Alabama, Purdue, or Wisconsin did. 

Lastly, I truly believe this is a letdown spot for Arizona. This is the end of the most difficult four-game stretch in Arizona’s entire schedule. First, the Wildcats please the home crowd with a smackdown of Wisconsin. Then, they reenact World War II against Zach Edey and Purdue. Now, coming off the bounce-back win over Alabama in front of a Phoenix crowd. Off the quick turnaround, Arizona has to go to Las Vegas to play a salivating FAU squad eager to prove the doubters wrong. If there was a team to have a motivational edge in this matchup, I predict it would be the FAU Owls. 

Final Arizona-FAU Prediction & Pick

If I am being honest, I think the FAU energy and hustle will be at a season high for the Owls. I predict the rebounding advantage Arizona has on paper to be closer than the numbers suggest. Also, I think this is a buy-low opportunity on FAU with the recent return of Nick Boyd. I mentioned earlier how important Boyd is for this team's success. 

Will Arizona be able to score in the paint? Yes. But I think FAU will be able to score theirs as well. Alabama just scored 74 while shooting 8-40 from three and coughing up 18 turnovers. I predict FAU to score above 80 points, battle their hearts out on the glass, and cover the three-possession spread.

Final Arizona-FAU Prediction & Pick: FAU +7 (-110)