The Houston Astros will continue their three-game series with the Cleveland Guardians on Saturday. It's a potential American League Divisional Series preview as we share our MLB odds series and make an Astros-Guardians prediction and pick.
Astros-Guardians Projected Starters
Justin Verlander vs. Ben Lively
Justin Verlander (4-6) with a 5.55 ERA
Last Start: Verlander struggled in his last outing, going 4 2/3 innings, allowing six earned runs and eight hits while striking out four and walking one in a no-decision against the Los Angeles Angels.
2024 Road Splits: Verlander has been better on the road, going 4-3 with a 4.25 ERA over 10 starts on the road.
Ben Lively (13-9) with a 3.80 ERA
Last Start: Lively went five innings in his last outing, allowing one earned run, three hits, and striking out two in a win over the St. Louis Cardinals.
2024 Home Splits: Lively is 8-2 with a 3.66 ERA over 13 starts at home.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Astros-Guardians Odds
Houston Astros: -1.5 (+172)
Moneyline: +102
Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (-210)
Moneyline: -120
Over: 8.5 (-102)
Under: 8.5 (-120)
How to Watch Astros vs. Guardians
Time: 6:15 PM ET/3:15 PM PT
TV: Bally Sports Glasgow, Space City Network
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Astros Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Astros are back on top, where they belong. Yes, they started the season slowly and somehow returned to win this division, partially thanks to division mates who did not play well. The offense remains stout.
Jose Altuve is removing socks and still battering the baseball. Amazingly, he leads the team in hits and came into the weekend with a mark of .293 with 20 home runs, 65 RBIs, and 92 runs. Altuve is getting older. Yet, he is still the heart and soul of this team, and the first player the Astros rely on to get the offense going.
Yordan Alvarez continues to be a powerhouse. Substantially, he entered the weekend with 35 home runs and will look to create more memories this weekend and in the postseason. Alex Bregman continues to hit the baseball well. Likewise, Kyle Tucker is back from injury and will hope to get his bat going.
Verlander is not doing so well lately. He has not gotten past the fifth inning since May 29. Injuries and inconsistency have been the culprits. Therefore, don't expect the ‘same old' Verlander. When Verlander exits this game, he will turn it over to the eighth-best bullpen in baseball. Of course, Josh Hader leads that bullpen as the closer.
The Astros will cover the spread if Altuve can get on base and Alvarez, Bregman, and Tucker can drive him in. Then, they need a good outing from Verlander before turning it over to the bullpen.
Why The Guardians Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Guardians have won the American League Central and will play out the final three games. Of course, this could be a potential preview of Game 1 for next Saturday if the stars align. While the regular season is not always a clear sign of how a playoff match will go, it still can play a key factor, especially if the games are this close together. Thus, the Guardians may want to see how well they can handle the Astros. The offense is better than ever.
Jose Ramirez leads that offense. Significantly, he came into the weekend leading the team in hits and home runs. Ramirez entered the series batting .279 with 38 home runs, 115 RBIs, and 113 runs. Ultimately, there is no doubt who the team MVP is, and he is expected to carry the load for the Guardians this weekend.
Steven Kwan also remains an integral part of this offense. Overall, he is the leadoff hitter, and the Guardians expect him to get on base to set the tone. Josh Naylor is another important hitter in this lineup. Ultimately, how he does can factor into how much scoring the Guardians can achieve.
Lively has not been going long lately, with August 24 being his last quality start. Therefore, he expects to try to right the ship. When Lively exits, he will turn it over to the best bullpen in baseball. Of course, the best bullpen in baseball also has the best closer in baseball. Emmanuel Chase is elite and came into the weekend with a 4-2 record and a 0.61 ERA with 47 saves. If the Guardians can get him the lead, the game is likely over.
The Guardians will cover the spread if they can cobble together some hits and build a lead. Then, they need Lively to pitch well enough to hand the game over to the bullpen.
Final Astros-Guardians Prediction & Pick
The Astros came into the weekend with an 81-78 mark against the run line, while the Guardians were 82-77. Also, the Astros were 41-35 against the run line on the road, while the Guardians were 38-40 at home. This feels like a playoff game. Consequently, it probably will be contested as one. Neither pitcher is hot right now. Yet, this also feels like a tight game in the making. Take the Astros to cover the spread on the road.
Final Astros-Guardians Prediction & Pick: Houston Astros -1.5 (+172)
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