Ranked 25th overall in the nation, Bruce Pearl’s Auburn Tigers will take on Eric Musselman’s Arkansas Razorbacks. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with an Auburn-Arkansas prediction and pick.

The AP Poll finally gave Bruce Pearl’s squad the attention it deserves by ranking the Tigers this week. If it were up to me, they would have been ranked in the initial poll to start the preseason. Only starting two returners, Auburn has enjoyed early season success from its newcomers. Sensational 6-1 freshman Aden Holloway leads the way with two junior transfers, 6-4 Denver Jones and 6-7 Chad Baker-Mazara. 

Another team that has leaned heavily on the transfer portal is the Razorbacks. Eric Musselman has earned the nickname ‘The Importer’ by Jon Rothstein and for good reason. Contrarily, Arkansas has not enjoyed the early season success that Auburn has.

Although, it seems as if things may be heading in the right direction in Fayetteville. After missing the first ten games of the season, Washington transfer Keyon Menifield has sparked new life in the once-stagnant Razorback offense. 

Menifield's ability to create for others has opened up the floor for Houston transfer Tramon Mark, Temple transfer Khalif Battle, and longtime Hog Devo Davis. Arkansas is coming off a 106-point performance against UNC-Wilmington which is the highest point total since the Razorbacks scored 142 against Mississippi Valley State in November of 2021. 

Bud Walton Arena is the place to be this Saturday, you folks do not want to miss this one – trust me. Below is the breakdown for my Auburn vs Arkansas prediction and pick. 

Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Basketball Odds: Auburn-Arkansas Odds

Auburn: -3.5 (-102)

Moneyline: -152

Arkansas: +3.5 (+120)

Moneyline: +126

Over: 157.5 (-110)

Under: 157.5 (-110)

How to Watch Auburn vs. Arkansas 

Time: 2:00 pm ET/ 11:00 am PT

TV: ESPN2

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why Auburn Will Cover The Spread

Initially, Arkansas defensively has not forced turnovers this year. They rank outside the top 300 nationally in both steal rate (312th)  and turnover rate (305th). For an Auburn offense that ranks 7th nationally in assist rate, this is a perfect matchup. Significantly, Washington transfer Keyon Menifield has taken control of the point guard position for Arkansas. While Menifield will boost the Razorback offense, he will not add anything defensively. Per EvanMiya, Menifield has an offensive performance rating of 3.14 and a defensive performance rating of -0.12. 

In their loss at Appalachian State, Auburn shot a season-worst 3/27 (11.1%) from three. That game was Appalachian State’s Super Bowl at 1:00 pm on a Sunday, weird game. With how wild that atmosphere was in Boone, North Carolina I think most Power Five teams would have struggled in that setting. 

Auburn has one of the cleanest offenses in the nation. Aden Holloway has performed well above expectations, especially in terms of taking care of the basketball. I mention this because we have seen this Arkansas defense struggle with pick-and-roll defense mightily so far this season.

Significantly, in almost every game there are multiple possessions of missed defensive assignments and/or rotations. With how efficiently Auburn has been running their offense, you have to believe they have the easier path to open looks.

In Arkansas’ best win, at home over Duke, Trevon Brazile was instrumental in stretching the floor. Brazile had a season-high 19 points and made 4/7 threes. In the past four games, Brazile is averaging just 6.5 points and has shot 1-5 from three in total. He played much better against UNC-Wilmington, but Wilmington does not have anyone over 6’9.

Earlier this week in a press conference Eric Musselman said they are trying to get Brazile the ball in position to be aggressive off the bounce but they are still working on it. If Brazile has an off night, the paths to victory get fairly slim for the Razorbacks.

Why Arkansas Will Cover The Spread

Initially, we have to address Arkansas’ ability to draw contact. Arkansas ranks 4th nationally in free throw rate at 48.4% and Auburn has a defensive free throw rate of 272nd (37.2%). Both Khalif Battle and Keyon Menifield rank top 25 nationally in fouls drawn per 40 minutes. Five of the ten players in the Auburn rotation average 4.0 or more fouls committed per 40 minutes. Two of those players are their center rotation of Johni Broome and Dylan Cardwell. If Broome gets into foul trouble that greatly changes the outlook of this matchup.

Staying with free throws but now talking in terms of point distribution, Arkansas gets 24.5% of its total points from the free throw line which is 17th most nationally. Defensively, Auburn allows 23.9% of opponent points from the free throw line which is 23rd most nationally. In summary, Arkansas makes a concerted effort to get to the line and Auburn plays a defensive style that will put them there often.  

Lastly, one of the main areas I have seen people talking about with this game is Auburn's ability to offensive rebound. From what I have been seeing, Arkansas might as well not even show up. It is unbelievable how many people are writing off this Arkansas team. College basketball is a game of matchups, and in this matchup, I predict we will see less of Jalen Graham and more of Chandler Lawson and Makhi Mitchell. 

I present to you the top three rebounders for each team with the first percentage being the offensive rebounding rate and the second being the defensive rebounding rate. Auburn: Johni Broome (12.8%, 28.3%), Dylan Cardwell (15.1%, 13.8%), and Chaney Johnson (9.5%, 17.1%). Now for Arkansas: Trevon Brazile (9.1%, 17.7%), Chandler Lawson (9.3%, 20.5%), and Makhi Mitchell (6.0%, 18.2%). 

Is Johni Broome a monster? Yes. Does Arkansas have a rotation of three forwards that all have a defensive rebounding rate of 17.7% or higher? Also yes. I already mentioned how high the Arkansas free throw rate is, so there is room to assume one of those three forwards for Auburn will miss some time in foul trouble. The narrative that Arkansas is going to get crushed on the glass just is not true. 

Final Auburn-Arkansas Prediction & Pick

Bud Walton Arena does magical things, folks. If this game was being played at a neutral site or Auburn, I would comfortably take the Tigers here. But I truly think Keyon Menifield has sparked new life in this team and fanbase. Bud Walton is simply one of the toughest places in America to play. There is a reason these odds were early released at Arkansas (+5 -110) only to get smashed down to (+3.5 -120). It is not a guarantee, but when the odds jump quickly after release I like to follow the early line movement.

Final Auburn-Arkansas Prediction & Pick: Arkansas +3.5 (-110)