The Boston Celtics Eastern Conference semifinals series against the Philadelphia 76ers has gotten off to a bit of a strange start. The C's dropped Game 1 of the series, thanks to an extraordinary 45-point outing from James Harden, but followed that up by laying a 34-point beatdown of Philly in Game 2, despite the fact that the 2022-23 MVP in Joel Embiid returned to the court for this contest.
Despite the two extremely different styles of victory for these squads, things are all square as the series shifts to Philadelphia for Game 3. The Sixers did their job in snagging home court advantage for what is now a best-of-five series, but now they have to protect it, and doing so after getting blown off the floor in Game 2 is going to be a lot easier said than done.
Game 3 should offer us the best inclination of where both these teams are at, and what could happen throughout the remainder of the series. For the Celtics, they are riding high after their huge Game 2 win, but heading into Game 3, it looks like they have a key X factor in this game. But oddly enough, that X factor is someone who doesn't even play on their team.
Wait, Joel Embiid is the Celtics X factor for Game 3?
Typically when identifying an X factor for a certain team, you pick out a player on that team who could individually shift the outcome of the game for that team. But after returning in Game 2 and not looking totally like himself, it's clear that Embiid's play in Game 3 is going to be the biggest indicator of where this series is at.
Nobody really played well for Philly in Game 2, which helps make Embiid's lackluster statline (15 PTS, 3 REB, 5 BLK, 4-9 FGM) look a little bit better. But it's clear that Embiid wasn't really himself on either side of the ball. He was extremely passive on offense, as Boston made sure to give him quite a bit of attention, and while he had five blocks on defense, the Celtics were having success when pulling him out to the perimeter and forcing him to try to stay with them on drives to the hoop.
Embiid certainly drew a lot of attention thanks to his sudden return in Game 2, but for Game 3, all eyes are going to be on the star center. How Embiid plays will obviously have a huge impact on the Sixers, but it also could end up determining how the Celtics attack this game, which is why he's actually their X factor for this game.
As noted above, Boston had a lot of success pulling Embiid out to the perimeter and seeing just how mobile he was on his injured knee. Embiid held his own at times, but once Boston stopped forcing shots at the rim in the third quarter and firing the ball out to open shooters at the perimeter, they blew the doors off the game and ran away with a massive win.
The C's obviously got hot from behind the arc after a mediocre first half of shooting, but they also have tons of room to operate in the paint with Embiid on the perimeter. We saw it more in Game 1 when he was out, but without Embiid in the paint, the Sixers don't really have a true paint protector. If Boston's shots stop falling, off-ball cuts into the paint when Embiid is stuck on the perimeter could be an avenue for the Celtics to pick up some easy points on offense.
On the other end of the court, Embiid is obviously going to shoot the ball more in this game. The Celtics did a good job of pressuring Embiid when he had the ball, particularly on his post ups close to the hoop, and he didn't really seem to have any issue getting rid of the ball and trying to let his teammates score. After nobody scored over 16 points for the Sixers in Game 2, that's going to change in Game 3.
Embiid's health is a big question mark, and many of those questions didn't exactly get resounding answers after Game 2, which is why Embiid's play in Game 3 is so important. The Celtics didn't truly reveal their hand when it came to their plan for defending Embiid, but they didn't really have to. Embiid will be more aggressive in searching for his shot, but the Celtics also probably have defensive wrinkles up their sleeve that they haven't shown yet either.
The 76ers are going to make adjustments after getting thrashed in Game 2, but what they decide to do with Embiid could end up being the most important thing for the Celtics as well. If Embiid looks like the same version of himself that we saw in Game 2, that's really bad news for Philadelphia. But if he can come out and disrupt Boston's gameplan on both sides of the ball, the Celtics are going to have a battle on their hands.
Given the nature of the playoffs, it would be wise to expect a big bounce back game from Embiid here. Whether or not Embiid shows up, though, is a huge deal for the Celtics, as he will single-handedly determine how they opt to play on both sides of the ball. It's a bit of an unusual situation, but Embiid is the Celtics X factor in Game 3, and it will be interesting to see how he performs in this extremely important game.
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