The Philadelphia 76ers might have wrestled home court off the Boston Celtics by splitting the opening two games of the series in Boston, having pulled off a major upset by winning the first game of the series without Joel Embiid. Despite that, the Sixers are a significant underdog to win the series as they head back to Philadelphia. Here are three major reasons why.
1. Game 2
Impressive as the Sixers might have been in Game 1, the Celtics quickly reminded the NBA world why they had the second best record in the NBA this season and squared the series up in Game 2. But they did more than just win that game; they systematically destroyed the Sixers, even with Joel Embiid returning to the floor after being named the 2022-23 MVP – more on him later.
The Celtics led that game from pillar to post, taking an eight-point lead into the half-time break before breaking away with a 35-16 third quarter, and ultimately running out 121-87 winners. They dominated just about every facet of that game; their bench blew out that of the Sixers, they were defensively far superior, they got themselves far more shots and they hit them with greater efficiency. What more could you ask for? That game was reflective of what the Celtics are capable of, and indicated why they are the unequivocal favorite to win this series.
2. Joel Embiid’s questionable health
Embiid is clearly the Sixers’ most important player, as he would be for virtually every team in the league. He is the recently crowned MVP, after all. And while the Sixers have a good record without him this season and thus far this series, have won the game he didn’t play and lost the game he did by 34 points, they need him out there if they want to beat the Celtics over a seven-game series.
Having returned in Game 2 it seems likely he’ll play through his knee injury for most if not all of the remainder of this series, but it was clear in that game that he wasn’t himself. The low minutes he played was because the game was a blowout, not because of his injury, but when he was on the floor his production was well below what it usually is. He took only nine shots and hit just four of them, ending the game with a measly 15 points, three boards and zero assists. Defensively he made himself known with five blocks, and his presence will be a significant factor there regardless of whether he’s fully fit, but it doesn’t seem like the 76ers are going to get their MVP superstar at his best this series, and that may very well cost them.
3. Depth
Both of these teams have really, really good players. Embiid and James Harden now both have MVPs to their name, while Jayson Tatum may very well get there one day and Brown is a high-quality second fiddle. After that, however, there is a serious talent differential across the two teams, particularly once we get to the benches.
The Celtics run deep, able to bring Malcolm Brogdon – a former Rookie of the Year – off the bench to backup Derrick White and Marcus Smart as well as Tatum and Brown as a ball-handler who can score with relative ease himself. The talented Robert Williams also comes off the bench as their backup center, while Grant Williams and Sam Hauser round out the names they seem likely to use in this series.
Compare that to the Sixers. De’Anthony Melton is a solid two-way player coming off the bench, but as a backup guard he’s nowhere near the level of Brogdon. Paul Reed was solid trying to cover for Embiid in Game 1 but he’s a fundamentally limited player who again, is not at the level of Robert Williams. Georges Niang and Jalen McDaniels will also play some limited minutes – the former of whom has averaged less than four points these playoffs and the latter less than three.
Notwithstanding the fact that Embiid isn’t fully fit, he and Harden can certainly go with Tatum and Brown as a duo, while Tyrese Maxey is a useful third fiddle and you always know what you’ll get from Tobias Harris. Thereafter, however, the Sixers are very thin, and the Celtics can capitalize on that.
The series may well be level at one game apiece with the Sixers now owning home court advantage, but there’s still plenty of reason for Boston to be confident. And Vegas agrees. The Celtics are comfortable favorites for good reason, and if Game 2 is anything to go by, should be advancing through to the Eastern Conference Finals.
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