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As the MLB post-season begins, stolen bases will be paramount to team success. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a special MLB Postseason Stolen Bases Leader prediction and pick.
This year, five of the seven top base stealers will be playing in the postseason, with just Elly De La Cruz and Jose Caballero missing out. Further, since 2015, the leader in stolen bases in the postseason has played in the World Series in every year except one. This year, players such as Shohei Ohtani and Jazz Chisholm Jr, both on teams favored to make the World Series, sit at the top of the list in odds to lead the postseason in stolen bases.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Post-Season Odds: Stolen Bases Leader
Shohei Ohtani: +270
Jazz Chisholm Jr.: +550
Brice Turang: +1200
Johan Rojas: +1200
Bryson Stott: +1200
Jose Ramirez: +1400
Lane Thomas: +1600
Anthony Volpe: +2100
Cedric Mullins: +2200
Andres Gimenez: +2600
Bobby Witt Jr.: +2700
Trea Turner: +2700
Brandon Marshall: +3600
Blake Perkins: +3900
Maikel Garcia: +4000
Favorites for MLB Post-Season Stolen Bases Leader
Shohei Ohtani is the favorite to lead the majors in stolen bases in the postseason. First, he was one of the best at stealing bases in the regular season. Ohtani was second in the majors with 59 stolen bases on the year. He was caught just four times this year, giving him a 93.7 percent success rate in stealing bases. Of the top ten base stealers this year, only Maikel Garcia and Victor Robles had a higher success rate. Second, the Dodgers are the favorite to win the World Series and make it out of the National League. Even though the Dodgers will play one less series, Ohtani will get a chance to make up ground with a World Series appearance. Finally, Ohtani has the best on-base percentage of the leaders in stolen bases.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. is the other favorite to lead the majors in stolen bases in the postseason. He finished the year with 40 stolen bases and was caught ten times this year. That is good for an 80 percent success rate this year. Like Ohtani, he will not be playing in the first round of the playoffs, but also like Ohtani, his team, the New York Yankees are one of the favorites to make it to the World Series. Chisholm also got on base at a fair amount this year, getting on base at a .324 rate this year.
Sleepers for MLB Post-Season Stolen Bases Leader
Brice Turang is the top of the sleepers to win the stolen base crown. With making the World Series one of the major factors in winning the crown, playing for the Brewers may slow Turang down. While they are a favorite to get out of the Wild Card round, they are fourth in odds in the NL to make it to the World Series. Still, Brice Turang was great in. stealing bases this year. He was third in the majors in stolen bases, stealing 50 bases this year. He was successful in 89.3 percent of his attempts this year. Further, he will be in a position to steal bases. He has a .316 on-base percentage this year, with 81.8 percent of the time being a walk or a single.
Bryson Stott is tied in odds with Brice Turang. He was 13th in the majors in stolen bases with 32. He did this in just 148 games as well, while being successful in 91.4 percent of his attempts this year. While Turang does have more stolen bases, the two have similar on-base percentages. Further, he will be in a better situation to play more games. The Phillies are second in odds to make the World Series out of the National League.
Jose Ramirez was fifth in the majors in stolen bases. He stole 41 bases this year on 48 attempts. That is good for an 85.4 percent success rate. Further, among the top ten stolen base leaders, Ramirez has the third-highest on-base percentage this year. Still, two factors work against him. The Guardians are lower on the odds list to make the World Series. Second, Ramirez also has power, which will give him fewer opportunities for steals. He finished just one home run short of the 40/40 club.
Final MLB Post-Season Stolen Bases Leader Prediction and Pick
The biggest concern for Shohei Ohtani leading the way in stolen bases may be his power. In the 229 times he reached base this year, 71 of them were for extra bases, limiting stolen base chances. He does have the highest on-base percentage of the stolen base leaders this year but also has the highest slugging. The best play for this prop is to take someone who is on a favorite to go to the World Series. With that, Shohei Ohtani, Jazz Chisholm Jr., and Bryson Stott should be the most considered. With Ohtani to most likely have the most chances to steal bases, take him to lead the post season in stolen bases.
Final MLB Post-Season Stolen Bases Leader Prediction and Pick: Shohei Ohtani (+270)
