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Nate Oats and the Alabama Crimson Tide travel north to take on Greg McDermott’s Creighton Bluejays. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with an Alabama-Creighton prediction and pick.
After entering March Madness as the number one overall seed, Alabama has experienced some growing pains out of the gate this year. Surprise departures from point guard Jahvon Quinerly and even more impactful, seven-footer Charles Bediako have left a few holes for Nate Oats to fill.
Similar to Nate Oats, Creighton’s Greg McDermott lost his point guard Ryan Nembhard, and a key piece of the frontcourt, Arthur Kaluma, to the transfer portal. With both squads experiencing growing pains, this might not be the top 25 matchup we expected a month ago. But in return, this game now becomes all that more important. Have we already hit the must-win territory in mid-December? It sure feels like it.
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Alabama-Creighton Odds
Alabama: +5.5 (-102)
Creighton: -5.5 (-120)
Over: 164.5 (-115)
Under: 164.5 (-105)
How to Watch Alabama vs. Creighton
Time: 8:00 pm ET/ 5:00 pm PT
TV: FOX
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Alabama Will Cover The Spread
For starters, Alabama is a far more battle-tested squad than the Bluejays. Through the first six weeks, Alabama ranks 37th in strength of schedule while Creighton ranks 135th. To add to the schedule discrepancy, the only top-fifty opponent Creighton has played so far was at home against 28th Colorado State. Colorado State met Creighton on a neutral floor in Kansas City and crushed the Bluejays by twenty points. The two best wins Creighton has are Iowa and Nebraska, who rank 59th and 63rd per KenPom.
Flip over to Nate Oats and company, four of their last five games have been against top-fifty opponents. Earlier I mentioned how both teams lost and added major pieces which can lead to early-season hiccups — it is important to note that this will be Creighton’s most difficult test to date with the new squad.
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Alabama’s weakness is no secret, the defense has been poor. The emergence of West Virginia transfer Mohamed Wague has been more than promising. Over the first six games, Wague came off the bench to play only ten minutes per game. Since then, Wague has started three straight games playing just shy of twenty minutes per game. Defending without fouling and rebounding rate have been Wague’s weakness, as his game continues to evolve so will this interior defense.
In Creighton’s two losses, they have lost badly — something the Tide have yet to do. Alabama’s three losses have come by an average of 8.3 points, with two of those losses being on neutral courts. I get the feeling the consensus is down on Alabama due to high expectations from last year's success, but this is a different team. I picked the Tide to finish 8th in the SEC in my preseason ballot. Alabama is exactly where I thought they would be right now — a fantastic offense with a feeble interior defense. If there is one singular takeaway I had from that Purdue performance, it is that this team knows how to fight.
Why Creighton Will Cover The Spread
I can not stress enough the importance of this being Alabama’s first true road game. Purdue’s only loss was their first true road game, the same goes for UConn, BYU, and Miami. That first true road game is brutal, and boy do they love their basketball in Omaha.
The Alabama defense was a concern of mine the second Charles Bediako announced he would not be returning to Tuscaloosa, and my concerns have come to fruition. Having Brandon Miller at 6-9 playing small forward created a length advantage that hounded teams. I could list off all of the different defensive categories that Alabama ranks poorly in, which is all of them, but I am more focused on their defensive tempo.
While Alabama ranks 4th nationally in offensive tempo, they are way back at 340th in defensive tempo. Initially, I was confused by this stat. I thought, maybe opponents have just shot the lights out so far and this defense is fine. The numbers are saying they have been grinding out long defensive possessions, but do not be fooled. This does not tell us that Alabama is forcing opponents into late shot-clock situations. This stat is telling us that teams are deliberately playing slow to neutralize Alabama’s speed — and offenses are still getting whatever they want.
If there is one thing Creighton can hang their hat on — it is half-court offensive efficiency. Greg McDermott has his Bluejays ranked 2nd in the nation in effective field goal percentage shooting over 60% from the floor. If Creighton stays true to their pace and does not let Alabama get out and run, I predict they should be able to get quality look after quality look in their half-court offense.
Final Alabama-Creighton Prediction & Pick
I am expecting the recent loss to UNLV for Creighton to dampen the weekend buzz in Omaha. What was excitement with Final Four aspirations has quickly turned into a nervous doubt. Meanwhile, Alabama is returning from a trip to Zach Edey country with a newfound confidence. I expect many to blindly fade Alabama in a first true road game spot, but I am leaning elsewhere.
I expected the odds to release at -4 for Creighton, but the oddsmakers have gifted us an extra point. The loss of Arthur Kaluma has impacted the Bluejays' defensive versatility too much for my liking — give me the battle-tested Tide to cover the spread.
Final Alabama-Creighton Prediction & Pick: Alabama +5.5 (-102)
