UFC Qatar: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker is heating up as we bring you another betting prediction and pick for this next bout in the Flyweight (125) Division. No. 7 Alex Perez of California will take on Kazakhstan's No. 8 Asu Almabayev in a competitive matchup in the top-10 rankings. Check our UFC odds series for the Perez-Almabayev prediction and pick.
Alex Perez (25-9) has gone 7-5 inside the UFC since 2017. He's 1-4 in his last five fights against current and former champions, but he's only made that many appearances since 2020. After a number of fight cancellations, he'll be looking to find his rhythm once again with a win here. Perez stands 5-foot-6 with a 65.5-inch reach.
Asu Almabayev (22-3) has gone 5-1 in the UFC since 2023. After suffering his first promotional loss to Manel Kape, he bounced back with a strong unanimous decision win over Jose Ochoa his last time out. He'll look to remain confident and jump the rankings as the betting favorite here. Almabayev stands 5-foot-4 with a 65-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Qatar Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Qatar Odds: Alex Perez-Asu Almabayev Odds
Alex Perez: +160
Asu Almabayev: -192
Over 2.5 rounds: -200
Under 2.5 rounds: +154
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Why Alex Perez Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Tatsuro Taira – TKO (knee injury, R2)
- Last 5: 1-4
- Finishes: 6 KO/TKO, 7 SUB
Alex Perez has been tasked with facing top-5 level competition ever since his title challenge against Deiveson Figueiredo back in 2020. Since then, Perez has had to withdraw from a number of fights due to medical issues. Things got worse in his last fight against Tatsuro Taira when he sustained a significant knee injury, sidelining him for over a year. He'll make his return in this fight barring any setbacks looking to finally get back on that winning streak he's been searching for.
Perez is well-rounded in all areas of the fight and remains consistent through all three rounds. He's much more active with his significant strikes per minute (4.19) opposite of Almbayev (2.16) and his striking defense is more sound at 58% to Almabayev's 52%. His takedown defense is also a very impressive 77% and will certainly given Almabayev a tough time in bringing him down.
Alex Perez should have a great chance as the underdog in this fight if he's able to feel confident planting on his knee. Takedown defense and remaining heavy on his bottom half will be a constant theme throughout this fight, so Perez will have to feel comfortable moving explosively on that knee.
Why Asu Almabayev Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Jose Ochoa – U DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 3 KO/TKO, 9 SUB
Asu Almabayev has been wildly consistent in his own right, winning four of his six UFC appearance by unanimous decision. While he's still evolving as a reliable striker, Almabayev is a smothering grappler and finds the bulk of his success in controlling opponents on the ground. This is certainly the toughest opponent he's had to face in his career, so he'll have to dig deep in earning this win if he wants to prove himself among other top-ranked fighters.
Almabayev isn't necessarily striking at a high rate, but he manages to land 54% of the significant strikes he throws. Against a steady striker like Perez, these landed strikes will prove to be crucial as Almabayev looks to wear his opponent down. From there, once he's able to establish himself in the striking, Almabayev searches his takedowns relentlessly and is able to land 43% of them, a solid rate given he's attempting almost five per fight.
Still, given Perez' strong takedown defense, Almabayev may have to resort to utilizing more of his striking game. Still, he has athleticism on his side and should be able to force Perez into a bad situation or two on the ground, so look for him to capitalize on those moments where he's able to showcase his grappling.
Final Alex Perez-Asu Almabayev Prediction & Pick
Both fighters are looking to prove themselves as a contender and the betting odds should be slightly closer in my opinion. Alex Perez has experience against former champions and all the tools needed to win this fight, but it'll all be dependent on his knee and if he's able to move the same on it.
Asu Almabayev, on the other hand, will have the toughest test of his career and will have to put forth his best performance yet in the striking department. He's had trouble finishing fights in the past, but the best version of Almabayev can easily control this fight for three rounds.
For our final betting prediction, we're going to role with Asu Almabayev to get the win on the judges' scorecards. Alex Perez will put forth an extremely formidable effort, but it's ultimately Almabayev who finishes each round in solid position on the ground and earns the razor-thin decision.
Final Alex Perez-Asu Almabayev Prediction & Pick: Asu Almabayev (-192); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-200)
