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The Iron Bowl is known for its football lineage but will include a chapter on the hardcourt on Saturday when No. 1-ranked Auburn (22-2) faces No. 2-ranked Alabama (21-3). It's time to continue our College Basketball odds series with an Auburn-Alabama prediction and pick.
Through a dominant non-conference schedule and a 9-0 start in SEC play, Auburn has held the No. 1 spot for several weeks. However, the Tigers suffered their first conference loss of the year on Feb. 8, falling to No. 6-ranked Florida 90-81 on their home court. Since then, they rebounded with a convincing win over Vanderbilt on Tuesday.
Alabama suffered more early losses in non-conference play but enters the matchup on a seven-game winning streak. The current win streak includes two top-15 wins over Mississippi State and Kentucky, both on the road. Most recently, the Crimson Tide picked up a dominant 103-80 win over Texas.
Here are the Auburn-Alabama College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
College Basketball Odds: Auburn-Alabama Odds
Auburn: +1.5 (-104)
Moneyline: +110
Alabama: -1.5 (-118)
Moneyline: -132
Over: 172.5 (-115)
Under: 172.5 (-105)
How to Watch Auburn vs. Alabama
Time: 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT — ORTG: AUB 1 ALA 2 DRTG: AUB 17 ALA 40
TV: ESPN
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Auburn Will Cover The Spread/Win
This matchup features not only the two highest-ranked teams in the country but also the teams with the two best offensive ratings. Auburn's 131.5 offensive rating leads the country with Alabama close behind at 127.7, per KenPom. However, while they may share similar offensive prowess, the Tigers are far better defensively. Auburn ranks 17th with a 95.4 defensive rating, while the Crimson Tide's 98.7 defensive rating ranks 40th.
When Alabama has struggled, they are often beaten on the interior. Purdue's Trey Kaufman-Renn, Rutgers' Dylan Harper, Oregon's Nate Bittle and Ole Miss' Malik Dia all dominated them in the paint. No big man Alabama has faced will be better than Johni Broome, whose 18.1 points per game is second in the SEC.
Offensively, Alabama's offense is largely predicated on the three-point shot, averaging 10.3 triples per game. Auburn's defense allows just six three-pointers made per game, the best mark in the SEC. The Tigers' defense allows an effective field goal percentage of 45.2 percent, the 10th-best in Division I.
Why Alabama Will Cover The Spread/Win
Both teams have had their moments throughout the year, but the timing of this matchup clearly favors Alabama, which has all the momentum on its side. The Crimson Tide have been scorching hot of late, winning four of their past five games against ranked opponents by an average of 10.75 points.
The entire country is familiar with Alabama's fast-paced offense, led by fifth-year senior Mark Sears. Nate Oats' squad leads the country with 90.5 points per game, largely based on volume and pace. The Crimson Tide average 78.1 possessions per game, also the most in the nation. They also rank top-20 in effective field goal percentage, three-pointers made, offensive rebounds, and second-chance points. Overall, Alabama has the second-best offensive rating, being only Auburn.
While Auburn is potent on both ends of the court, they have struggled with similarly elite offenses. They faced two other teams with top-five offensive ratings thus far, losing to both Duke and Florida. Those are their only two losses of the year.
Final Auburn-Alabama Prediction & Pick
On paper, Auburn is better on both ends of the court, but the momentum and matchup side with Alabama. The Crimson Tide excel at forcing teams to compete with them in track meets, the exact style that has been Auburn's kryptonite early on. With the game being held in the Coleman Coliseum, expect the Tide to dictate the pace early.
Straight-up record aside, Auburn has been an average team against the spread. Their ATS numbers are mediocre across the board, including just 1-1 as a road underdog. In general, the Tigers are just 6-5 ATS on the road.
The side is Alabama at home but the best play is on the over. The total is high, and both teams are near 50-50 to the over-under, but the over has hit in four of Auburn's past five games and six of Alabama's eight games with a single-digit spread. These are the two best offenses in college basketball with both defenses struggling to defend each other's strengths. Auburn and Alabama have played a combined 19 games against ranked teams; 13 of them have gone over, hitting at a 68 percent clip.
Final Auburn-Alabama Prediction & Pick: Alabama -1.5 (-118), Over 172.5 (-115)
