Subscribe
Follow Us
After a playoff birth last year, the Baltimore Orioles look to take another step forward in 2025. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Baltimore Orioles over/under win total prediction and pick.
The Orioles finished last year 91-71, earning their second straight playoff birth. Still, they would finish in second place in the division, three games behind the New York Yankees. They would be swept by the Kansas City Royals in the American League Wild Card Series. It was the second straight year the Orioles have been swept out of the playoffs. Further, it was also a step back from their 2023 season, in which they won 101 games.
This year, the win total is set at 88.5 games for the Orioles, but they are second in odds to make the playoffs in the American League, just behind the New York Yankees.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: 2025 Win Total Odds
Over 88.5 Wins: -112
Under 88.5 Wins: -108
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why You Should Bet the Over
The Orioles have cleared the win total in each of the last two seasons, winning 192 games in the last two seasons. They just missed this win total in the 2022 season but still won 83 games that year. The first key will be the continued improvement of Grayson Rodriguez. He improved from going 7-4 in 2023 while going 13-4 last season. His WAR went from 0.9 to 1.4 last year while starting three fewer games. He has started just 43 games in his two years and, based on his track record, would project to winning 16 games if he can make a full slate of starts this year.
Second, the Orioles bring back Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman to lead the lineup. Henderson was an all-star last year and finished fourth in MVP voting. He had a 9.1 WAR while hitting 37 home runs and driving in 92 runs. Rutschman hit 19 home runs last year, with 79 RBIs. While he was an all-star, it was the first time in his three full years he did not finish in the top 12 of MVP voting. Still, he had a 3.4 WAR last year.
Finally, Jackson Holliday and Heston Kjerstad will be looking to make an impact this year. Holliday was solid last year in his 60 games. He hit just .189 but with five home runs and 23 RBIs. He also had a 0.1 WAR. If he can improve, he will become a major factor in the Orioles' offense. Kjerstad is not projected to be on the opening-day roster but should get the call-up this year. In 52 games over his last two years, he has hit .248 with six home runs and 17 RBIs.
Why You Should Bet the Under
One of the major reasons that the Orioles will not reach this win total will be the loss of players and the lack of additions for the Orioles. First, the Orioles lost Corbin Burnes. Burnes was 15-9 last year with a 2.92 ERA. Further, he was an all-star and finished fifth in the Cy Young voting. Burners had an ERA+ of 128 and a WAR of 3.4 last year. This means Zach Eflin will be the ace of the staff. Eflin was 5-2 in his time in Baltimore last year, with a 1.7 WAR over nine starts. Further, the main replacements will be new signings Charlie Morton and Taomoyuki Sugano. Morton was 8-10 last year with a 1.1 WAR, while Sugano is coming over from Japan after going 15-3 last year.
The Orioles also lost Anthony Santander. Santander was great last year, hitting .235 with 44 home runs and 102 RBIs. He was not great on defense, with a -1.4 defensive WAR, but he has an overall WAR of 2.9. Tyler O'Neil is expected to be the replacement for Santander. He hit .241 last year with 13 home runs and 61 RBIs. He had a WAR of just 2.6. Between the losses of Burnes and Santander, it was a net loss of 1.5 in WAR.
Finally, the Orioles are in a stacked division. The Yankees are the favorite to be the top team in the American League, and the Orioles are projected to be behind them. Meanwhile, the Red Sox, Rays, and Blue Jays all improved in the offseason. Boston's win total is at 85.5 games, while the Rays are at 81.5 and the Blue Jays are at 78.5 games.
Final Orioles Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
The Orioles' success over the last two years has been based on young players continuing to improve. Still, Adley Rutschman took a step back last year and will need to rebound. Further, the Orioles will be banking on the growth of Jackson Holliday, while they will be replacing Anthony Santander in the line-up. The Orioles also still have concerns on the back end of their rotation and will be replacing their top pitcher. It is possible they will make moves throughout the season to improve, but with the rest of the division improving, the Orioles could take another step back this year.
Final Orioles Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Under 88.5 (-102)