The top two teams in the AFC East are set up to clash in Week 15. The New England Patriots took the first match-up, handing the Buffalo Bills their first loss of the year. Now, the Bills look for revent. It is time to continue our NFL odds series with a Bills-Patriots prediction and pick.
The Bills come into the game at 9-4 on the year, which is good for second in the AFC East. Last time out, the Bills had to make a comeback to get the win against the Cincinnati Bengals. Buffalo was down by ten at half and would remain that way in the fourth quarter. A Josh Allen 40-yard scamper for a score that made it a three-point game. A pick-six would give the Bills the lead, and they would hold on to win 39-34.
Meanwhile, the Patriots are 11-2 on the year, and have won ten straight games. The Patritos are coming off a bye week, after defeating the New York Giants on Monday Night Football the week before. The Patriots have a chance to clinch a playoff spot this weekend. With a win over the Bills, they will be AFC East Champions.
NFL betting odds courtesy of DraftKings.
Bills vs. Patriots Odds
Bills: -1.5 (+100)
Patriots: +1.5 (-120)
Over: 50.5 (-110)
Under: 50.5 (-110)
Bills vs. Patriots Key Injuries
Bills- DE Joey Bosa (Questionable), LB Terrell Bernard (Questionable), OT Spencer Brown (Questionable), WR Joshua Palmer (Questionable)
Patriots- RB Terrell Jennings (Questionable), S Brenden Schooler (Questionable), DT Khyiris Tonga (Questionable), G Jared Wilson (Questionable)
Bills vs Patriots Betting Trends
– The Bills are 6-7 ATS this year. They are 3-3 ATS on the road this season.
– The Patriots are also 8-5 ATS this year. They are just 3-4 against the spread at home this season.
– The Bills are 4-7 against the spread when a favorite this year.
– The Patriots are 3-1 ATS when an underdog this season.
– The under is 7-6 this year in Bills games, and has been the correct side in four of the last six games.
– The over is 7-6 this year in Patriots games. It has also hit in five of the last seven games for the Pats.
Keys to Bills vs Patriots
For the Bills to get the win in this game, they need to control the ground game. The Bills' offense has been one of the best in the NFL this year. They are fifth in the NFL in points per game while sitting second in yards per game. The passing offense is 11th, but the running attack is ranked first in the league. James Cook has been great for the team this year. He is second in the NFL with 1,308 yards rushing while scoring eight times on the ground so far. Cook is also not the only major factor in the running game. Josh Allen has run for 487 yards this year and 12 touchdowns.
The Patriots did a solid job in the first game with the Bills in shutting down the run, and have been good all year in that regard. The defense is fifth in the league in opponent points per game while also sitting seventh in opponent yards per game. One of the major aspects of this defense has been the run defense. The Pats are third in the NFL against the run this year. Harold Landry III has been a major part of that. He has 46 tackles and 7.5 sacks, but also has nine tackles for a loss. He is going to be the one who needs to keep Allen in check and make sure the run defense is solid.
For the Patriots to win, they need to exploit the poor run defense of the Bills. The Pats have not been great at that this year. They are second in the NFL in passing yards per game while sitting 21st in rushing yards per game. The Bills have been great against the pass this year, sitting second in the NFL in opponent passing yards per game. The Bills are 28th against the run this year.
TreVeyon Henderson is going to be a key for the Pats in this one. He has run for 625 yards and five touchdowns so far this season. Most of that has been in the last six weeks. In his first seven games, Henderson's best game was 21 yards and a touchdown. Since then, he has run for 55 or more yards in every game, plus has scored four times in the last six games. If he can have another solid game this week, the Patriots will be able to keep up with the Bills' offense in this game.
Bills vs. Patriots Prediction and Pick
In the first game with the Bills and Patriots, the Bills could not get things going on the ground. They ran for 118 yards on 29 attempts. Further, they turned over the ball three times, while also converting on just two of four red zone chances. Both of those situations have been abnormal this year. The Bills are one of the best in the red zone on offense in the NFL, sitting ninth in the league in red zone touchdown percentage. Meanwhile, the Bills are tenth in giveaways per game. That first matchup was a three-point game, and without three turnovers, the Bills would have gotten the win.
Meanwhile, the Patriots' offense has been hot in recent weeks. Since the 23-20 victory over the Bills, the Patriots have scored 24 or more points in every game, and over 30 points three times. The Patriots' offense is going to keep them in this game, but it will not be enough to get the win.
Final Bills vs. Patriots Prediction and Pick: Bills -1.5 (+100) and Over 50.5 (-110)
