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The Atlanta Braves are in the Bronx to take on the New York Yankees Friday night. Below we will continue our MLB odds series with a Braves-Yankees prediction and pick. We will also let you know how to watch the game.
Braves-Yankees Projected Starters
Chris Sale vs. Carlos Rodon
Chris Sale (9-2) with a 2.98 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 81.2 innings pitched, 99K/13BB, .211 oBA
Last Start: vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 7 innings, 5 hits, 2 runs, 2 walks, 7 strikeouts
2024 Road Splits: 5 starts, 3.16 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 31.1 innings pitched, 41K/7BB, .222 oBA
Carlos Rodon (9-3) with a 3.28 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 85 innings pitched, 81K/23BB, .223 oBA
Last Start: at Boston Red Sox: 5 innings, 7 hits, 5 runs, 3 walks, 7 strikeouts
2024 Home Splits: 5 starts, 2.30 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 31.1 innings pitched, 32K/6BB, .182 oBA
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Braves-Yankees Odds
Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (+150)
Moneyline: -108
New York Yankees: +1.5 (-182)
Moneyline: -108
Over: 7.5 (-122)
Under: 7.5 (+100)
How to Watch Braves vs. Yankees
Time: 7:05 PM ET/4:05 PM PT
TV: Exclusively on Apple TV+
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Braves Will Cover The Spread/Win
Chris Sale has officially rejuvenated his career in Atlanta. He is back to pitching like a Cy Young, and he could very easily win the National League Cy Young this season. Sale has a tough matchup against a good offense in this game, but he is a great pitcher. He has a 35.9 chase percentage, 31.8 whiff percentage, 85.9 average exit velocity, and his xERA is lower than his actual ERA. Sale is getting teams to chase out of the zone, and he is getting them to swing and miss at a high rate. If that continues in this game, the Braves will win.
The Braves are hitting a bit better since June 1st. They are 9-8 in those games, but they have 57 extra base hits in that span, as well. They are also slugging .415, which is very good. The Braves are starting to see the ball much better, and they need to continue that here. Atlanta is also much better against left-handed pitching. If the Braves are able to get hot off Rodon, maybe leave the yard once or twice, they will win this game.
Why The Yankees Will Cover The Spread/Win
Carlos Rodon is healthy and pitching great. He is back to pitching like he did on the San Francisco Giants after a very rough year last year. He needs to be at his best in this one. Luckily for the Yankees, Rodon is much better at Yankee Stadium. Something about pitching at home just flips a switch for him. In fact, it is something about Yankee Stadium. He had a 2.16 ERA against the Yankees in the Bronx when he was with the Chicago White Sox. With this being a home game, I am expecting Rodon to be at his best against the Braves.
As mentioned earlier, Sale is getting teams to expand the zone, and he is getting teams to swing and miss at a high rate. However, the Yankees offensively are not a team that will get themselves out. New York has the 10th-lowest whiff rate, second-lowest chase rate, and the second-lowest swing rate. They are going to be very patient at the plate and work the count. If they can continue to do so against Chris Sale, they will get him out of the game early and give themselves a chance to win.
Final Braves-Yankees Prediction & Pick
I love this pitching matchup. This is going to be a lot of fun to watch, and I am expecting the under to hit in this one. As for a winner, I am going to go with the pitcher I have more trust in. That is Chris Sale right now. I will take the Braves to win this game straight up.
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Final Braves-Yankees Prediction & Pick: Braves ML (-108)
