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Buffalo finished the year playing much better than Liberty, winning four straight. The biggest storyline is that Liberty is missing their starting quarterback, Kaidon Salter, entering this matchup. It is time to continue our college football odds series with a Buffalo-Liberty prediction and pick.
Buffalo-Liberty Last Game – Matchup History
Liberty has won all three matchups in these programs' history against each other. Liberty won in 1998, 2019, and 2023. They met last year in Lynchburg, Virginia, and won in a blowout, 55-27. These two teams are very different entering this matchup in the Bahamas.
Overall Series: Liberty leads 3-0
Here are the Buffalo-Liberty College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Buffalo-Liberty Odds
Buffalo: -2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -134
Liberty: +2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +112
Over: 50.5 (-115)
Under: 50.5 (-105)
How to Watch Buffalo vs. Liberty
Time: 4:00 pm ET/1:00 pm PT
Article Continues Below
TV: ESPN
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Why Buffalo Could Cover The Spread/Win
Buffalo's offense has been decent this year but has the potential to be even better. They are averaging 355.1 yards and 29.1 points per game. This offense is led by C.J. Ogbonna under center. He has 2,244 passing yards, 19 passing touchdowns, and five interceptions with a 57.1% completion percentage. The receivers have disappointed this year. Victor Snow is the big standout, with 610 yards and six touchdowns on 51 receptions. The running game has been solid, too, with Al-Jay Henderson leading the team. Henderson has 959 yards and eight touchdowns on 183 carries. This Buffalo offense should be able to find some success against a Liberty defense that has been inconsistent this year.
The Bulls have been inconsistent on defense this year but have the tools to play well. They are allowing 404.3 yards and 28 points per game. They have struggled against the pass but have been decent against the run. They allow 258.9 yards through the air and 145.3 yards on the ground. The front seven need to get home against Liberty, with Shaun Dolac, Dion Crawford, and Kobe Stewart all being standouts in some fashion for the Bulls. Due to the Transfer Portal, they have a great matchup against a Liberty offense that is missing their signal-caller, Kaidon Salter. This defense should show up in the Bahamas against Liberty.
Why Liberty Could Cover The Spread/Win
Liberty's offense has been one of the best units in the Group of Five. They are averaging 435.3 total yards and 30.9 points per game. Kaidon Salter entered the Transfer Portal and is now at Colorado, so the Flames will be starting Ryan Burger under center instead. Burger has attempted seven passes and four completions with a 57.1% completion percentage. The receivers did not do much this year and have been very disappointing. Treon Sibley leads the team with 499 yards and two touchdowns on 26 receptions. The ground game has been great, and with Salter out, it will be the big focus for the Flames on offense. Quinton Cooley leads the team with 1,254 yards and 13 rushing touchdowns on 205 carries. Cooley will be the focal point for the Flames, and he gets a difficult matchup against the Bulls on defense.
Liberty's defense has been inconsistent all year. It allows 351.3 yards and 23.3 points per game, but it is solid against both the pass and the run. They allow 201.7 yards through the air and 149.5 yards on the ground. The Liberty front seven is what makes this defense go. The standouts are Joseph Carter, Jerome Jolly Jr., TJ Bush Jr., and CJ Brazile Jr.. Most of their defense is intact entering this game. The Liberty defense has a solid matchup against Buffalo in the Bahamas. Liberty's defense is the X-factor because Buffalo has most of their team available on offense entering this game.
Final Buffalo-Liberty Prediction & Pick
The difference in this game is that Liberty does not have a quarterback, while Buffalo does. Liberty lost Kaidon Salter and switched to Ryan Burger, which added many unknowns to the game. Quinton Cooley is the key for the Liberty offense in the backfield. Buffalo has better vibes entering this game with almost zero opt-outs. The Buffalo defense should slow down the new-look Liberty offense and win and cover in the Bahamas.
Final Buffalo-Liberty Prediction & Pick: Buffalo -2.5 (-110)
